{"id": "1214742907443576839", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T15:00:00Z", "msg": "809\nWTPA42 PHFO 301501\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  40\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026\n \nSignificant southwesterly wind shear continues to cause rapid \nweakening of Nolo this morning. The center of circulation is \ncompletely exposed with only minimal convection persisting to the \nnortheast of the center. Nolo has also drifted south of due \nwest over the past several hours, and the initial position has been \nadjusted accordingly. Recent intensity estimates have fallen \nsubstantially and range from 35-55 kt. The initial intensity is set \nat a potentially generous 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nNolo is drifting toward the west-southwest, steered by a building \nmid-level ridge to the northwest and a strong, positively-tilted \ntrough located to the northeast. Given Nolo's rapid weakening over \nthe past day or so, the cyclone is forecast to drift slowly toward \nthe west or west-southwest over the next day or so as it becomes \nincreasingly steered by the low-level flow. Beyond 48 h, as Nolo \nre-intensifies and becomes vertically deeper, a generally westward \nmotion at a faster forward speed is expected as the ridge builds to \nthe north, and Nolo is expected to cross the International Date \nLine by day 5. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to the \nleft from the previous forecast to account for the adjustment in \nthe initial position, which is also closer to the latest HCCA \nand Google DeepMind solutions. \n \nProhibitive southwesterly wind shear and a dry mid-level environment \nhave caused rapid weakening over the past day or so, and similar \nconditions are expected through the next day. Beyond that time as \nthe strong trough moves away from Nolo, decreasing shear and \nslightly more favorable upper-level winds should support gradual \nstrengthening through the rest of this week and into this weekend. \nHowever, the continued dry mid-level environment could limit the \nrate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly beyond 60 h \nand Nolo is expected to regain hurricane strength around this time. \nThe intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/1500Z 22.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}