{"id": "1214741919195758599", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T15:00:00Z", "msg": "566\nWTPZ43 KNHC 301456\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026\n\nSatellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel has a large and \nelliptical central dense overcast with cloud tops of colder than \n-80C.  The storm also has a lot of outer banding, particularly in \nthe western semicircle. However, despite the well-organized \nappearance, shear analyses suggest the cyclone is still experiencing \n15-20 kt of easterly to northeasterly shear.  Satellite intensity \nestimates are currently in the 60-77 kt range, and the initial \nintensity is set at 75 kt based on these and continuity from the \nprevious advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is northwestward or 315/8. Rachel continues to \nmove along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over \nnorthern and central Mexico.  This ridge is weakening due to the \neffects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor \nimagery over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. \nAs this trough moves northeastward and weakens during the next \ncouple of days, this should allow another ridge to build to the \nnorth of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, Rachel is forecast to \nturn west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California \nPeninsula before continuing westward away from land. The new \nforecast track has minor nudges from the previous track, and it lies \ngenerally near the center of the track guidance envelope.\n\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through \nat least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility once the \nhurricane develops a tighter inner core. However, two possible \nnegative influences include the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a \ntrack of cooler water left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, \ndecreasing sea surface temperatures under the forecast track and dry \nair entrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity \nforecast is an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the \nupper edge of the intensity guidance.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico and the coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued, \nwind gust of tropical-storm force are possible along portions of \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.\n \n2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to \nportions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall \nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico\nand the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several\ndays.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/1500Z 18.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 18.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 19.7N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 19.9N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/0000Z 20.0N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 20.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 20.7N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}