{"msg": "971\nAXNT20 KNHC 301017\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1005 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of\n21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia\nnear 13.5N17W and continues westward to 15N28W to 11N38W. The \nITCZ extends from 11N38W to 06N48W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 19N and between\n19W and 46W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Veracruz and the\nFlorida Straits. High pressure over the eastern United States\nsupports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate\nseas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over\nthe eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico\nsupport moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf \nwaters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by \ntonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will \nweaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend \nas a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly\nmoving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening \nwinds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and \nbuilding seas are possible behind the very slow moving front.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves\nsection above, strong storms are noted off Panama and NW Colombia,\nwhile only passing weak showers are seen in the central and \neastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area sustains\nmoderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin,\nincreasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and in the Gulfs\nof Honduras and Venezuela. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the\nCaribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward\nPassage.\nFor the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will\nsupport scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W \nover the next few days. High pressure north of the area will \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the \ncentral Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the \nremainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in \nthe rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into \nthe Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting \nin a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge\nretreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the \nbasin into early next week.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA divergence flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue\nto sustain strong showers and thunderstorms across the central\nBahamas and central Cuba. Farther east, showers dot the waters\nbetween Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. High pressure dominates\nthe SW North Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh\neasterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and west of 55W.\nLight to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted\nelsewhere west of 55W.\nThe remnants of Fay continue moving westward near 23N51W and\nsupport a few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of \nthe center. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the\nnorthern semicircle of the low. Seas of 6-8 ft are found from 20N\nto 28N and between 44W and 55W. Meanwhile, moderate westerly winds\nand seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 29N and between 35W and 50W\nassociated with Tropical Storm Hanna currently north of our\nwaters. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, weak high\npressure is prevalent sustaining moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across\nthe region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend \nsupporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. \nModerate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the \noffshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will \ncontinue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking \nahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida \nearly next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind\nthe boundary. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214687107064037383", "issued": "2026-09-30T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214687107064037383"}