{"id": "1214667299843276807", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T09:00:00Z", "msg": "069\nWTPA42 PHFO 300837\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  39\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026\n \nNolo continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of strong \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Satellite \nimagery shows that the low-level circulation center is now fully \nexposed, with limited deep convection confined north of the center. \nThe latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC \nand HFO are 55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 50 \nto 60 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing \nintensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.\n\nNolo has begun its anticipated west-northwestward turn, with an \ninitial motion of 290/5 kt. As a ridge builds north of the cyclone, \nNolo is forecast to turn more toward the west overnight and into \nWednesday. A temporary westward to west-southwestward motion is \npossible during the next day or so as the weakening system becomes \nincreasingly influenced by the lower-level steering flow. \nThereafter, as Nolo re-strengthens, it is forecast to gain some \nlatitude while continuing generally westward through about day 4, \nfollowed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5 as it crosses the \nInternational Date Line. The track guidance remains in decent \nagreement, despite some continued along- and cross-track spread. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous \nprediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n\nStrong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are \nexpected to continue affecting Nolo during the next day or so, \nresulting in additional weakening. The shear is forecast to relax \nthereafter, allowing environmental conditions to become more \nfavorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level \nenvironment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea \nsurface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very \nsimilar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during \nthe next day or so, followed by little change in strength through \nThursday before re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain \nhurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter. \nThe intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/0900Z 22.4N 164.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}