{"msg": "075\nAXNT20 KNHC 300546\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0540 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 81W, south \nof 19N into western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is in the W Caribbean between 76W and 84W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 14N30W to 10N36W. The \nITCZ extends from 10N36W to 07N47W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 06N to 13N between 18W and 27W, and from\n06N to 18N between 27W and 42W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak surface ridge is building over the eastern half of the Gulf\ntonight. A mid to upper level trough E of 90W continues to \nsupport a trough that extends across the Florida Keys to the SE \nbasin near 25N86W and its associated scattered showers E of 88W.\nRecent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong SE winds\nover the SE waters S of the trough axis where the strongest\nconvection has been present. The scatterometer data also show\nmoderate to fresh SE winds over the NW basin and similar winds of\ngentle to moderate speeds in the Bay of Campeche. \nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, \nexcept moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. \nWinds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin \nby Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient \nwill weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the \nweekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving\ninto the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and\nsubsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas \nare possibly behind the very slow moving front. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the SW and\nNW Caribbean, associated with a mid to upper trough over the E \nGulf of America extending a base over the W Caribbean. This shower\nactivity is also associated with a tropical wave currently moving\nover the Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. A\n1018 mb high SE of Bermuda and a bulding ridge over the E Gulf of\nAmerica are supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide,\nexcept for locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf\nof Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7\nft in the SW basin and vicinity of the tropical wave. Seven ft\nseas are also offshore Colombia. \nFor the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will\nsupport scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W \nover the next few days. High pressure north of the area will \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the \ncentral Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the \nremainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming \nweekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to \nlocally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to \nmoderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas \nwill dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, \nand also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nScattered showers continue to affect the Great Bahama Bank and the\nBahamas as well as the offshores N of 27N between the Florida\ncoast and 70W. Farther east and to the SE of Bermuda, a 1018 mb\nhigh is centered near 29N60W, which is supporting light to gentle\nwinds N of 25N. South of 25N, a tighter gradient of pressure due\nto the passage of a wave over the W Caribbean, is supporting\nmoderate to fresh easterlies along with moderate seas to 6 ft.\nOver the central subtropical waters, the remnants of Tropical\nDepression Fay are centered near 23N48W with a 1012 mb low\ngenerating scattered showers from 21N to 24N between 47W and 51W.\nFinally, over the E subtropical waters, a weak stationary front\nextends from 30N19W to 27N29W to 26N38W. However, no shower\nactivity is associated with it as well as the remnant low of\nGonzalo located near 22N28W, which is anchored by a 1015 mb low\nnear 22N28W. Otherwise, except fresh to strong winds within 75 nm\nN semicircle of the Fay remnant low, moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate seas are elsewhere.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad \ntroughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE \nof Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and \nsupport moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through \nFri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin\nby the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the \noffshore waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to \nmoderate seas will dominate through the forecast period. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214633817014304775", "issued": "2026-09-30T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214633817014304775"}