{"id": "1214596304428302343", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T03:00:00Z", "msg": "538\nWTPA42 PHFO 300236\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  38\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026\n \nNolo continues to weaken this afternoon due to strong southwesterly \nvertical wind shear and dry air entraining into the circulation. \nSatellite imagery shows the low-level center becoming partially \nexposed, with deep convection decreasing in coverage and cloud tops \nwarming. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates \nfrom JTWC and HFO are both 65 kt, while objective estimates range \nfrom 65 to 75 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and \ndecreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to \n75 kt.\n\nNolo has started to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/5 kt. \nThis trend will continue tonight into Wednesday as it interacts with \na mid- to upper-level trough. As a mid-level ridge builds north of \nNolo, a sharp westward turn is forecast by early Wednesday, followed \nby a generally westward motion through the remainder of the week. \nThe latest track guidance remains in decent agreement on this, \nalthough some cross-track spread persists. The latest GDMI and HCCA \nguidance has shifted southward from the previous cycle, taking Nolo \nslightly farther away from French Frigate Shoals, Maro Reef, and \nLisianski Island as it moves westward. The ECMWF and GFS remain on \nthe southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GDMI and HCCA \nare on the northern side. The latest NHC track forecast is similar \nto the previous prediction and lies between these solutions. Nolo is \nforecast to accelerate westward later this week and into the weekend \nas the ridge becomes more established north of the cyclone.\n\nStrong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are \nexpected to continue affecting Nolo during the next 36 to 48 h. \nThese hostile environmental conditions should result in additional \nweakening, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm on \nWednesday. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h, \nallowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for \nre-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit \nthe rate of intensification despite the warm sea surface \ntemperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to \nthe previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next \ncouple of days before gradual re-strengthening begins. Nolo is \nforecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen \nsomewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle \nof the guidance envelope.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/0300Z 22.0N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}