{"id": "1214596117741862919", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-30T03:00:00Z", "msg": "530\nWTPZ43 KNHC 300235\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026\n \nThe last available visible satellite images of Rachel showed the \ncirculation center was still near the northern edge of the deep \nconvective mass. The restricted outflow on the northern side of the \ncirculation indicates that northeasterly shear continues to plague \nthe storm. Recently, a large burst of deep convection has developed \ncloser to the estimated center position, but the latest satellite \nintensity estimates do not support upgrading Rachel to a hurricane \nyet. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt.\n \nRachel is moving northwestward (310/11 kt) on the southwestern side \nof a mid-level ridge over northern and central Mexico. A slower \nforward speed is expected over the next day or so as a cutoff \nupper-level low over the southwestern U.S. moves eastward and \nweakens the ridge. This upper low is forecast to lift northward on \nThursday and Friday, which should allow another ridge to build in to \nthe north of Rachel. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn toward \nthe west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California \nPeninsula before continuing westward away from land. The updated NHC \ntrack forecast trended slightly faster than the previous one based \non the latest TVCN and HCCA aids, along with a minor northward \nadjustment at 48-72 h following the multi-model consensus.\n \nThe northeasterly shear over Rachel is forecast to gradually weaken\nduring the next day or two, which should allow for a faster rate of\nstrengthening given very warm SSTs and a moist, divergent\nupper-level environment. The latest DTOPS guidance shows about a 50\npercent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h, and the NHC intensity\nforecast remains aggressive on the higher side of the guidance\nenvelope with HCCA, HAFS-A, and the COAMPS-TC models. Beyond 48 h,\nRachel appears likely to track near or over the cool wake left\nbehind by Polo while encountering a drier mid-level environment.\nThus, some weakening is anticipated during the latter half of the\nforecast period, with the NHC forecast falling in between HCCA and\nIVCN during this time.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area tonight.\n \n2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to\nportions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall\nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in\nareas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico\nand the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several\ndays.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/0300Z 17.0N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 18.9N 108.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 19.8N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  02/1200Z 20.0N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 20.2N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}