{"msg": "192\nAXNT20 KNHC 292219\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 79W, south \nof 18N into eastern Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered \nconvection is along the wave from 13N to 16N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 1012 mb low pressure\nnear 22N27W, to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 08N55W to\n08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either\nside of the monsoon trough between 30W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA surface trough reaches from 27N85W to 20N95W. Scattered showers\nand thunderstorms are active southeast of the trough over much of\nthe southeast and south-central Gulf, associated with an upper\ntrough extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan\nPeninsula. Gentle SE to S breezes are noted over the eastern \nGulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds are noted over the western \nGulf. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, the trough will gradually dissipate through the\nevening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to moderate return \nflow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the \nwestern Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally \nfresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient \ntightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of\nthe week into the weekend as a front approaches the western \nportion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend \nwith weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing \nwinds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving \nfront.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the far\nnorthwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, associated with an upper\ntrough over the Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic is\nsupporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean,\nwith 3-5 ft seas. \nFor the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the \ncentral Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the \nremainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming \nweekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to \nlocally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to \nmoderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas \nwill dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, \nand also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight. \n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nRecently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay is centered near \n23.7N 48.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 1380 nm WSW of the Azores, moving \nWSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The\nfresh to strong winds are within 120 nm in the northern semicircle\nof the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm \nin the northeast semicircle of Fay. Maximum seas are 8 ft (2.5 m) \nwithin 60 nm in the northwest quadrant of Fay.\nElsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across\nthe northern Bahamas, associated with an upper trough over the\neastern Gulf. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, north\nof a surface trough extending from 20N60W 11N53W. This pattern is\nsupporting moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 55W,\nexcept for fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola.\nOutside of the area around Fay, mostly gentle breezes and 5-7 ft\nseas in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic \nsouth of 31N.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad \ntroughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE \nof Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and \nsupport moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through \nFri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin\nby the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay east of the area will \nbecome a remnant low and move to 23.1N 49.8W Wed morning, 22.7N \n52.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Slight to moderate\nseas will dominate through the forecast period.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214545803807686663", "issued": "2026-09-29T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214545803807686663"}