{"msg": "493\nAXPZ20 KNHC 292115\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 16.0N 105.7W at 29/2100\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. The center is partially exposed under northerly \nshear, shifting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection\nto 480 nm in the SW semicircle. Seas near the center are as high\nas 23 ft (7 m). \nRachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, \nwith isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions\nof the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac\u00e1n, Colima and Jalisco.\nThis rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction \nof forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the \nNational Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available \nat hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and\nspread northward through the end of the week. These swells are\nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nNewly downgraded Tropical Storm Polo is inland over centered near\n28.9N 109.8W at 29/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 17 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Polo will continue to move inland \nand weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 105.7W Wed \nmorning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Seas over adjacent waters\nof the Gulf of California are 16 ft (nearly 5 m), but subsiding\nquickly as winds diminish. \nPolo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches \nacross southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated \nmaximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-\nthreatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated\nwith Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total \nRainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico \nduring the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 14.2N 130.8W at\n29/2100 UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to \n40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 90 nm to 120 in the \nnorthern quadrant, and this has diminished from a few hours ago. \nNineteen-E will continue to move eastward and gradually diminish \nthrough the next two to three days. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Rachel and\n  Nineteen-E.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N93W, and from \n12N110W to 11N115W to 15N125W, and from 14N135W to beyond \n13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from\n05N to 13N between 100W and 120W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nT.S. Polo and on T.S. Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a large majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore \nthe Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere\nover the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough\nseas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,\nexcept slight in the northern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 107.0W Wed\nmorning, move to 18.2N 108.0W Wed afternoon, and 19.0N 108.9W \nThu morning, and 19.4N 109.5W Thu afternoon. Rachel will continue\nto move to the northeast of Clarion Island reaching 19.6N 110.3W\nFri morning, and 19.8N 111.1W Fri afternoon. Rachel will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to 20.2N 112.9W by Sat afternoon.\nFarther north, the center of newly downgraded Tropical Storm \nPolo is inland over northwest Mexico near 29.0N 109.7W, moving to\nthe northeast at 18 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nNW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where\nseas are 7 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the\nremainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6\nft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. \nFor the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nT.S. Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E.\nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 20N124W with a pressure of \n1007 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh \nnortheast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing \nnorth of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W.\nFor the forecast, Nineteen-E will move to 14.2N 129.6W Wed morning, 14.4N\n127.8W Wed afternoon, 14.7N 125.9W Thu morning, become a remnant\nlow and move to 14.8N 124.1W Thu afternoon, 14.9N 122.1W Fri\nmorning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish\nelsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area as described above.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214533282031501319", "issued": "2026-09-29T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214533282031501319"}