{"id": "1214525810678628359", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T21:00:00Z", "msg": "356\nWTPA42 PHFO 292037\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  37\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026\n \nNolo's satellite appearance continues to degrade this morning as it \nsuccumbs to strong vertical wind shear. Drier air has also started \nto entrain into the inner core of the system, eroding southern \nportions of the circulation and causing cloud tops to warm. \nSatellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest \nCurrent Intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and UW-CIMSS ranging \nbetween 75 and 90 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and \nthese estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this \nadvisory.\n\nNolo has continued to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/7 \nkt. A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is \nexpected through tonight. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to \ndecelerate further as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level \ntrough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to \nbuild to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. \nThere continue to be along-track differences among the track \nguidance. The better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind (GDMI) \nmodels are slower than the global models and depict a much slower \nturn and subsequent re-acceleration. Toward the end of the forecast \nperiod, Nolo is expected to move generally westward across the \nPapahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track \nforecast has once again been slowed down through 72 h and trends \ntoward the latest HCCA and GDMI aids.\n\nThe moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue \nimpacting Nolo for the next 36-48 h or so, with dry mid-level air \nalso entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady \nweakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm \nduring that time. The shear is expected to relax in 48 to 60 h. \nAlthough the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures, the \ndry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of re-strengthening. \nThe latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing \nsteady weakening in the short term before the system re-strengthens \ninto a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. This prediction \nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/2100Z 21.3N 164.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 22.1N 164.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 22.4N 164.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 22.4N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 22.5N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  02/0600Z 22.7N 166.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 23.0N 167.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 23.4N 171.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 24.9N 178.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}