{"msg": "959\nAXNT20 KNHC 291711\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 24.2N 47.3W at 29/1500\nUTC or 1330 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 10 kt, and this\nmotion is expected to continue over the next several days. \nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Little change in strength\nis forecast, and Fay is forecast to become a post- tropical \ncyclone on Wednesday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south \nof 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is along and ahead of the wave from\n12N to 18N between 75W and 84W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 22N27W to 07N42W. The \nITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 16N between \n25W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nNumerous moderate convection is occurring over the SE Gulf S of\n28N and E of 90W, supported by a surface trough analyzed from the\nBay of Campeche to near 25N88W and another surface trough along\nthe eastern Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure over northern Mexico\nagainst lower pressure across the Gulf is supporting gentle to \nmoderate SE winds over the western half of the basin, and light to\ngentle winds along with slight to moderate elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a frontal trough extending from near Tampa Bay,\nFlorida to near Veracruz, Mexico supports scattered showers and \nthunderstorms near the axis. This feature will gradually dissipate\nthrough the evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to \nmoderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally \nfresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to \nmoderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the \npressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to \neast by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches\nthe western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of\nthe weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section above for details on\nconvection in the SW Caribbean.\nDeep layer troughing continues to support scattered moderate\nconvection over the far NW Caribbean N of 20N and W of 80W,\nincluding western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Weak high pressure  \nhas drifted to near 28N60W, tightening the pressure gradient. This\nis supporting moderate trades across the E Caribbean and moderate\nto fresh winds as well as moderate seas over the central basin, \nincluding offshore NW Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate \nto fresh SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing. Seas of 2-5 ft\nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the \ncentral Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the \nremainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the weekend as \nthe pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh \ntrades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW\nCaribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the \nbasin, except slight in areas of weakest winds. \n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Fay. \nDeep layer troughing and abundant low-level moisture continue to \nfuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across across the \noffshores between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A surface trough \nanalyzed from 11N52W to 20N58W also supports scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms along and near the trough axis. A 1019 mb \nhigh is SE of Bermuda near 28N60W, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds across the region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW\nN Atlantic waters. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are \nsupporting gentle to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands, \nand a cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N31W. Gentle to moderate\ntrades prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a \ntrough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of \nBermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and \nsupport moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through \nFri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin\nby the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the \nremnants of Tropical Depression Fay currently east of the offshore\nwaters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to moderate seas\nwill dominate through the forecast period.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214485215784992775", "issued": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214485215784992775"}