{"msg": "491\nAXPZ20 KNHC 291610\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 27.8N 110.9W at 29/1500 UTC,\nmoving northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80\nkt. Peak seas are to near 27 ft (8 m). Polo is now over the Gulf\nof California, with scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection within 30 nm of the center. Polo is expected to \naccelerate northeastward in the flow on the east side of a mid-\nlatitude trough over the southwestern United States. The forecast\ntrack shows the cyclone making landfall near Guaymas in the next\nfew hours and then crossing northwestern Mexico until \ndissipation occurs. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals \nof 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. \nRainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches \nis expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This \nrainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo \nwill affect portions of the coast of the Baja California \npeninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip \ncurrents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast \nrainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather \nService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 15.3N 105.0W at 29/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (8 M). Numerous\nmoderate to scattered strong convection is within 240 nm in the\nsouthwest semicircle of Rachel, and within 120 nm in the\nnortheast semicircle. Rachel will turn toward the northwest \nlater today as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico, followed\nby a gradual decrease in forward speed as Rachel moves into a \nregion with weaker steering flow. Outer bands from Rachel will \nbring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest \nMexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of \nflooding and mudslides, especially in regions of steep terrain. \nLarge waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico \nduring the next several days. Rachel is expected to produce \nrainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of\n12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of \nGuerrero, Michoac\u00e1n, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may \nproduce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep \nterrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated\nwith Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total\nRainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by \nRachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico \nduring the next couple of days and spread northward through \nmidweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nNewly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near \n14.4N 131.6W at 29/1500 UTC, moving east at 8 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nwithin 60 nm in the northern quadrant. Although the system has \nbecome a tropical depression, the center is mostly exposed with \nmoderate shear. There is a slight chance of the system reaching \ntropical storm intensity later today before it feels the cold \nwake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow. The environment is \nexpected to further dry out during the next couple of days with \nan increase in shear. These factors should cause the depression \nto weaken by late Wed and degenerate into a post- tropical \ncyclone by late Thu. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Rachel and\n  Nineteen-E.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 13N94W, and from\n13N108W to 11N115W to 15N132W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N \nbetween 100W and 120W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a large majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore \nthe Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere\nover the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough\nseas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,\nexcept slight in the northern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo is near 27.8N 110.9W at 8 AM \nPDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 981 mb. Polo will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 30.5N 108.2W this evening, and dissipate Wed morning. \nFarther south, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 15.3N 105.0W at 8 AM\nPDT, and is moving west- northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 987 mb. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near \n16.5N 106.4W this evening, move to 17.9N 107.7W Wed morning, \n19.0N 108.8W Wed evening, 19.7N 109.5W Thu morning, 20.1N 110.0W \nThu evening, and 20.4N 110.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to the northeast of the \nRevillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander between \nthose islands and the southern tip of Baja California through \nlate Sat. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate east to southeast winds are over the western portion \nof the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light \ngradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. \nModerate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near\nthe Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and T.D. Nineteen-E.\nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 21N123W with a pressure of \n1006 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh \nnortheast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing \nnorth of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W.\nFor the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm\nnear 14.5N 130.2W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression \nnear 14.5N 128.5W Wed morning, move to 14.7N 126.8W Wed evening, \n14.9N 125.1W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.0N \n123.3W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Winds and seas \nwill diminish elsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area as \ndescribed above.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214473347740106759", "issued": "2026-09-29T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214473347740106759"}