{"id": "1214457665224278023", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "msg": "552\nWTPZ44 KNHC 291451\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026\n800 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026\n\nSatellite images indicate that the system well west-southwest of \nBaja California Sur (former Invest EP91) has had enough organized \ndeep convection with a well-defined circulation to be considered a \ntropical depression.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, \nconsistent with an overnight scatterometer pass and a Dvorak 2.0 \nfrom TAFB.  \n\nAlthough the system has become a tropical depression, the center is \nmostly exposed with moderate shear.  There is a slight chance of the \nsystem reaching tropical storm intensity later today before it feels \nthe cold wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow.  The \nenvironment is expected to further dry out during the next couple of \ndays with an increase in shear.  These factors should cause the \ndepression to weaken by late Wednesday and degenerate into a post- \ntropical cyclone by late Thursday.  The NHC forecast is just above \nthe model consensus.\n\nThe depression is moving eastward at 8 kt.  This general motion is \nexpected for the next few days until dissipation while the cyclone \nremains embedded in westerly flow due to a northward-displaced \nnear-equatorial trough, enhanced by both the strong El Nino event \nand western Hemisphere Madden-Julian Oscillation.  The track is \nclose to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and leans toward the \nHCCA corrected-consensus model.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/1500Z 14.4N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 60H  02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}