{"id": "1214456794051248135", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "msg": "506\nWTPA42 PHFO 291446\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  36\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026\n \nNolo is experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical \nwind shear, as its convective organization has continued to degrade \nthis morning. The deep ring of convection has collapsed, and cloud \ntops have warmed. Subjective and objective satellite intensity \nestimates from JTWC, HFO, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease, \nnow ranging between 95 and 102 kt. Based on the degrading satellite \nappearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this \nadvisory. A scatterometer pass that arrived shortly after the \nprevious advisory was helpful in refining the initial wind radii.\n\nThe system has slowed down since the previous advisory and has \nturned more northward, with an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. \nA continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is \nanticipated today. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to \ndecelerate significantly as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level \ntrough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to \nbuild to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. \nThere continue to be along-track differences among the guidance. \nThe better performing HCCA and Google DeepMind models are slower \nthan the global models and depict a much slower turn and \nre-acceleration. Towards the end of the forecast period, Nolo is \nexpected to move generally westward across the Papahanaumokuakea \nMarine National Monument. The latest NHC track forecast has been \nslowed down and shifted slightly to the left of the previous, \ntrending toward the GDMI and HCCA aids.\n\nModerate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue \nimpacting Nolo for the next 48 hours or so, with dry mid-level air \nalso entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady \nweakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm \nduring that time. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h \nwhile the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures. \nHowever, the dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of \nrestrengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these \ntrends, showing steady weakening in the short term before the system \nrestrengthens back into a hurricane by the end of the forecast \nperiod.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/1500Z 20.5N 164.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 22.3N 164.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 22.2N 165.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 22.0N 165.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  02/0000Z 22.3N 166.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 22.6N 167.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 23.0N 169.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 23.9N 175.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}