{"id": "1214456387318349831", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "msg": "411\nWTPZ42 KNHC 291444\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026\n\nPolo is now over the Gulf of California, with convection increasing \nnear the center. The cyclone weakened during its passage over Baja \nCalifornia del Sur, but the consensus of the satellite intensity \nestimates is that it remains a hurricane with winds near 65 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 040/15. Polo is expected to accelerate \nnortheastward in the flow on the east side of a mid-latitude trough \nover the southwestern United States.  The forecast track shows the \ncyclone making landfall near Guaymas in the next few hours and then \ncrossing northwestern Mexico until dissipation occurs.\n\nLittle change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall \nthe surface circulation should weaken rapidly over the rough terrain \nof northwestern Mexico, with the circulation dissipating between \n12-24 h. However, Polo's remnant vorticity will continue moving \nnortheastward and likely interact and phase with aforementioned \nmid-latitude trough digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S. \non Tuesday night and Wednesday.  This will contribute to heavy \nrainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. \nand southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction \nCenter and local National Weather Service offices for more \ninformation.\n  \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Hurricane conditions are expected in southern Sonora as the \ncenter of Polo moves inland, and residents there should remain in a \nsafe shelter through this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm \nconditions will spread across northwestern Mexico near the center \nof Polo through this afternoon. A dangerous storm surge is expected \nat the coast in areas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact the southern and \ncentral portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is expected to \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nof steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and \nflooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High \nPlains today into early Wednesday.\n \n3. Even after Polo dissipates, its low- to mid-level remnants may \nproduce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of \nnorthwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.\n \n4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the\nnorthwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or\nso.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}