{"msg": "438\nAXPZ20 KNHC 291003\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0945 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 26.2N 111.9W, or about 70 nm \nnorth of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 29/0900 UTC, moving northeast\nat 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are \nto near 27 ft (8 m). Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west\ncoast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of \nLas Barrancas. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection\nwithin 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 60 nm of the \ncenter in the S semicircle. Polo is expected to undergo a \nsignificant accelerating of its current motion this morning. On \nthe forecast track, the core of Polo will continue moving across \nBaja California Sur for another few hours tonight, then move \ninland over southern Sonora late this morning. Some slight \nadditional weakening is forecast during the next couple of hours \nwhile the center is over Baja California Sur, but Polo is still \nexpected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in \nmainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tue when Polo \nmoves well inland over mainland Mexico. Polo is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja\nCalifornia Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum \ntotals of 8 inches is expected across southern and central \nportions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. \nSwells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of the\nBaja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the \nnext day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office. For a complete \ndepiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see \nthe National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic \navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 14.7N 104.3W, or about \n230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico at 29/0900 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with \ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are to near 20 ft (7 M). Satellite \nimagery depicts very deep of the numerous strong type within 210 \nnm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 240 nm of the \ncenter in the NW quadrant. A generally northwestward motion at a \nslower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the\nforecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel \nto, but stay offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Gradual \nstrengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is \nforecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Rachel is \nexpected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated \nmaximum totals of 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican \nstates of Guerrero, Michoac\u00e1n and Colima. This rainfall may produce \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a \ncomplete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, \nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic \navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells \ngenerated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast \nof Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward \nthrough midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nDisorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nseen within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.  A 1005 mb \nlow, Invest EP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near \n14N134W. The system is still expected to become a tropical \ndepression during the next day or two while it drifts \nnortheastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become \nless conducive for development late this week. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across \nthe southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern Nicaragua, \nthen to 11N85W to 12N90W and to 15N95W. It resumes west of Rachel\nat 14N110W to 11N115W to 15N122W to low pressure ,Invest EP91,\nnear 14N134W 1005 mb to 13N136W and to beyond 14N140W. Numerous \nstrong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between\n117W-122W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from \n04N to 12N between 106W-117W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a large majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore \nthe Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere\nover the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough\nseas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,\nexcept slight in the northern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move inland and weaken to \na tropical storm near 28.4N 110.1W this afternoon, move inland \nand weaken to a tropical depression near 31.7N 106.8W late \ntonight and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Rachel is \nnear 14.7N 104.3W, or about 230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro \nCardenas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 \nkt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and \nthe minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to near \n15.7N 105.4W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N\n106.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 \nkt, move to near 18.4N 108.1W Wed afternoon with maximum \nsustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near 19.3N 109.1W late\nWed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, move \nto near 19.8N 109.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds \n85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 20.2N 110.3W late Thu night. \nRachel will change little in intensity as it moves to northeast \nof the Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander \nbetween those and the southern tip of Baja California through \nlate Sat.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate east to southeast winds are over the western portion \nof the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light \ngradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. \nModerate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near\nthe Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area \nlow pressure in the far western waters that has potential for \ntropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are \nover the western portion of the area, primarily west of a line \nfrom about 30N120W to 19N130W to 14N140W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft \nprimarily in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle \nto moderate winds are elsewhere per overnight scatterometer \nsatellite data passes.\nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 21N123W with a pressure of \n1004 mb. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are within 180 \nnm of the low in the NW quadrant along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. \nThe low is forecast to move southward today, then weaken to a \ntrough Wed. Winds will subside, but rough seas will prevail due \nto the influences of the nearby tropical systems. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 14.7N 104.3W, or\nabout 230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to near 15.7N 105.4W this \nafternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 106.8W late \ntonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to \nnear 18.4N 108.1W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 \nkt gusts 90 kt, move to near 19.3N 109.1W late Wed night with \nmaximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, move to near 19.8N \n109.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105\nkt and to near 20.2N 110.3W late Thu night. Rachel will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to northeast of the Revillagigedo\nIslands by late Fri night, and meander between those islands and\nthe southern tip of Baja California through late Sat. \nDisorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nseen within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A 1005 mb \nlow, Invest EP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near \n14N134W. The system is still expected to become a tropical \ndepression during the next day or two while it drifts \nnortheastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become \nless conducive for development late this week. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214401102313816071", "issued": "2026-09-29T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214401102313816071"}