{"id": "1214391005727522823", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "msg": "088\nWTPZ42 KNHC 290911 CCA\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  35...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026\n\nCorrected for Key Message number 1.\n\nPolo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja\nCalifornia Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.\nSeveral microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out\n(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo\nwas a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.  There is some\nuncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the\ndata we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2\nhurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95\nkt range.  The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and\nit is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70\nkt.\n \nThe hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt.  A\nsignificant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a\nmid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S.\nThis track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of\nSonora late this morning.  The track forecast is a little slower\ncompared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly\ndue to the slower initial motion.\n \nSome slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of\nhours while the center of Polo remains over land.  When the center\nemerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic\nconditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity.  The\nlatest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is\npossible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that\nstate.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the\nrugged terrain of northwestern Mexico.  Although Polo is likely to\ndissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is\nincluded for continuity.\n \nPolo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a\nstrong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.\non Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash\nflooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern\nPlains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and\nlocal National Weather Service offices for more information.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds to Baja California \nSur, and residents there should remain in a safe shelter through \nthis morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread \ninto mainland Mexico early today. A dangerous storm surge is \nexpected in areas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California\nSur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This\nrainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo\nwill support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the\nSouthwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early\nWednesday.\n \n3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce\nstrong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest\nMexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.\n \n4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the\nnorthwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or\nso.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}