{"id": "1214386981514772487", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "msg": "410\nWTPA42 PHFO 290851\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  35\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nHurricane Nolo remains a 100 kt major hurricane for now, in\nagreement with the objective and subjective satellite intensity\nestimates. The cyclone continues to endure moderate to strong\nvertical wind shear, a consequence of an approaching mid- to\nupper-level trough located to its northwest. An RCM-3 Synthetic\nAperture Radar (SAR) overpass from around 0455 UTC informed the\npresent analysis of the wind radii and provided a helpful center\nfix.\n \nThe cyclone is now moving to the north-northwest at 330/13 kt. A\nmore northward motion is expected through Tuesday in response to the\nmid- to upper-level trough. By Wednesday, Nolo is forecast to slow\ndown dramatically as it interacts with and ultimately merges with\nthe trough. Significant along-track uncertainty remains beyond 36\nhr. The differences in forward motion depend largely on how quick\nNolo completes the merger with the trough and the strength of a\nmid-level ridge that will build to the northwest. By the latter part\nof this week, the mid-level ridge should steer the system generally\nwestward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands\nwithin the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. The track forecast\nblends the previous one toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and\nattempts to reconcile these many complicated steering features.\n \nVertical wind shear is expected to increase even further, and this \nshould continue to ventilate Nolo with dry and stable air over the \nnext couple of days. The new intensity forecast shows Nolo weakening \nto a tropical storm by 48 hr, though this could happen sooner. \nBeyond 60 hr, Nolo is forecast to re-intensify as the vertical wind \nshear subsides, but dry mid-level atmospheric conditions could limit \nthe pace and magnitude of intensification. The intensity forecast is \nat the upper-end of the guidance envelope at 12 hr due to recent \ntrends in infrared satellite imagery, and after that time lies \nwithin the middle of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0900Z 20.0N 164.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 21.3N 164.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.5N 164.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 22.7N 164.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  01/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 23.1N 167.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 23.4N 168.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 24.1N 174.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}