{"id": "1214386882785509383", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "msg": "402\nWTNT41 KNHC 290850\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026\n\nProxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay \nhas increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours. \nInfrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud \ntops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was \n2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are \nin the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been \nheld at 35 kt for this advisory. \n \nThe storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated \ninitial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general \nsouthwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of \ndays as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern \nperiphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. \nThe current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous \none with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI \nforecast aids.\n\nWith the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days, \nthe intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection \nwill likely become increasingly separated from the center as the \nSHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the \ncouple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to \nmaintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and \nan area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity \nforecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is \nstill expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.  \nThe global models show the system degenerating into a trough \nafterwards. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0900Z 25.0N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 24.0N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 23.1N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 22.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}