{"msg": "663\nAXNT20 KNHC 290452\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nFay has strengthened to a Tropical Storm again, and is centered \nnear 26.0N 45.9W at 29/0300 UTC, or 1200 nm W-SW of the Azores, \nmoving SW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to\n10 ft are within 75 nm in the NW semicircle. Northwesterly\nvertical wind shear continues to force convection to the south \nand southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Fay. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is occurring from 23N to 26N between\n43W and 46W. A general SW to W-SW motion is anticipated over the \nnext several days. Some minor fluctuations in intensity may occur \nthrough early Wed as convection pulses, before Fay weakens to a \npost tropical remnant low Wed morning. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 18N \ninto northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated \nclusters of moderate convection are found from 14N to 16N between \n74W and 76.5W, while scattered moderate convection is found along\nthe NE coast of Colombia between 73W and 74W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near \n21N17W and extends to 1011 mb low pres near 21N25.5W then to \n07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N40W to 09N51W to the coast of\nVenezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 10N to 13.5N E of 21N to the African coast, and\nwithin 120 nm NW and 210 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 26W \nand 40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm N of\nthe ITCZ between 45W and 54W and between 60W and 63W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection extends form the\nentire Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico towards the north-\nnortheast and across the southeastern Gulf waters to the offshore\nwaters of western Florida near Cedar Key. This activity is\noccurring to the east and southeast of an upper level trough\nextending from the northeast Gulf through the Bay of \nCampeche. Mostly fair skies prevail elsewhere. At the surface, a\nweak stationary lingers over the northern coastal waters from \nSE Louisiana to near Apalachicola, Florida. Light to gentle winds\nsouth to southeast winds prevail across most of the basin, \nyielding slight seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds across the \nnorthern coastal waters of the Yucatan are producing seas 3 ft and\nlocally higher.\nFor the forecast, the weak stationary front over the NE Gulf will\ndissipate tonight. High pressure north of the dissipated front\nwill support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf\nthrough Tue. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas \nover mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure \nshifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern \nPlains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the \nweek as the front stalls across eastern Texas Fri and Sat. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep layer troughing extending from the NE Gulf of America\nsouthward across the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western\nCaribbean is supporting scattered clusters of moderate isolated\nstrong convection across the NW basin, N of 13N and W of 77W, and\nextending northeastward into the Bahamas. Weak high pressure\nacross the western Atlantic has drifted southward to near 27N59W,\nand tightened the pressure gradient modestly in the past 24 \nhours. This is leading to moderate trades across most of the basin\nE of 77W, and fresh to locally strong winds S of 14N near the\ncoast of NE Colombia. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these strongest winds\nand 3 to 5 ft elsewhere E of 77W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE \nwinds are also occurring across the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N,\nwhere seas are 4 to 5 ft and building. Mainly gentle yo moderate E\nto SE trades previal across the remainder of the basin, except\nlight and variable SW portions. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure is slowly building across the\ncentral Atlantic, to the SE of a trough extending from Sw of  \nBermuda to the northern Bahamas. This pattern is supporting a \nmodest pressure gradient over the region tonight. Expect moderate\nto fresh E to SE winds and building seas across the basin by \nmidweek as high pressure builds north of the area, with rough seas\npossible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night \nthrough Fri.\n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Fay. \nAmple low level moisture persists to the S and SE of a surface \ntrough extending from SW of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 210 nm S\nand SE of this trough, where gentle to moderate S to SE winds\nprevail at the surface. Similar S to SE winds prevail to the N of\nthe trough W of 75W. To the S of 22N gentle to moderate easterly\ntrades prevail W of 60W, except fresh winds along the N coast of\nHispaniola. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell and 3\nft or less W of 74W. To the E, T.S. Fay is centered near 26.0N\n45.9W, and is sandwiched in between two high centers at 28N57W \nand 31N44W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle to locally\nmoderate NE to E winds S of 22N between 30W and the Lesser \nAntilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants \nof Gonzalo are near 21N25.5W, and is still producing moderate to\nlocally fresh cyclonic winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to the N and W of\nthe center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate seas dominate.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms will persist through morning along a trough \nreaching from the SW Bermuda adjacent waters to the northern \nBahamas. The trough will dissipate through Tue, allowing high \npressure to build over the western Atlantic. This pattern will \nsupport moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by \nmidweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214340036293427207", "issued": "2026-09-29T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214340036293427207"}