{"msg": "632\nAXPZ20 KNHC 290408 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nCorrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0345 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 25.9N 112.5W, or about 65 \nnm north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 29/0300 UTC, moving \nnortheast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb.\nMaximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. \nPeak seas are to near 37 ft (11). Satellite imagery reveal that \nthe cyclone is not as well organized as it was earlier, with the \neye being clouded up. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nseen within 60 nm of the center. Polo is anticipated to acquire a \ngradual acceleration through Tue. On the forecast track, the core\nof Polo is expected to make landfall along the coast of Baja \nCalifornia Sur within the next couple of hours, then move inland \nover southern Sonora Tue morning. Little change in strength is \nexpected before Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo \nis also expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second \nlandfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tue \nwhen Polo moves well inland over mainland Mexico. Polo is \nexpected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across \nportions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches\nwith maximum totals of 8 expected across southern and central \nportions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For\na complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, \nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall \nGraphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of\nthe Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the\nnext day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 14.5N 102.9W, or about \n220 nm southwest of Acapulco, Mexico at 29/0300 UTC, moving \nwest-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.\nPeak seas are to near 20 ft (6 M). Satellite imagery shows that \nRachel overall cloud pattern and structure is gradually improving.\nNumerous strong convection is seen within 180 nm south-southwest\nof the system center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is elsewhere from 08N to 14N between 102W and 112W.\nA gradual turn toward the northwest with a slower forward speed \nis expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the \ncenter of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore \nof, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Gradual strengthening is \nexpected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become \na hurricane during the next day or so. Rachel is expected to produce \nrainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 \ninches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, \nMichoac\u00e1n and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete \ndepiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see \nthe National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available \nat hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern\ncoast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread \nnorthward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\n\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nScattered moderate convection remains limited and disorganized \nin association with an area of low pressure located well east- \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. This activity is seen from \nfrom 14N to 18N between 131W and 135W. A 1005 mb low, Invest\nEP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N134W. \nAlthough the system has lost some organization today, it is \nstill expected to become a tropical depression during the next \nday or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental \nconditions are expected to become less conducive for development \nlate this week. This system has a high chance of tropical \nformation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest \nNHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across \nthe southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica,\nthen to 10N85W to 09N87W and to 11N95W. It resumes west of\nRachel at 13N112W, and continues to 16N126W to Invest EP91\nnear 14N134W 1005 mb and to west of the area at 14N140W.\nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from\n07N to 13N between 112W-120W. Scattered moderate convection\nis south of 10N west of 137W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a large majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore \nthe Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere\nover the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough\nseas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,\nexcept slight in the northern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 27.7N \n110.9W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 31.0N 107.7W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed \nmorning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near1 4.5N 102.9W, or about 220\nnm southwest of Acapulco, Mexico at 8 PM PDT, and is moving \nwest-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with \ngusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. \nRachel will move to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 105.8W Tue evening with \nmaximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then continue to \ngradually strengthen as it moves to near 17.9N 107.0W Wed \nmorning, to near 18.9N 107.8W Wed evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 19.5N 108.5W Thu morning with \nmaximum sustained 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 19.9N 109.1W Thu\nevening. Rachel is forecast to move to be east-northeast of the \nRevillagigedo Islands by Fri evening.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate east to southeast winds are over the western portion \nof the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light \ngradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. \nModerate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near\nthe Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area \nlow pressure in the far western waters that has potential for \ntropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are \nover the western portion of the area, primarily west of a \nfrom about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in\nmixed swell over these waters. Mostly gentle to moderate winds \nare elsewhere. \n \nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 22N123W with a pressure of \n1004 mb. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are within \n180 nm of the low in the NW quadrant along with seas of \n8 to 11 ft. The low is forecast to move southward through\nTue, then weaken to a trough Wed. Winds will subside, but rough \nseas will prevail due to the influences of the nearby tropical \nsystems. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 14.5N 102.9W, or\nabout 220 nm southwest of Acapulco, Mexico at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt \nwith gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. \nRachel will move to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 105.8W Tue evening with \nmaximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then continue to \ngradually strengthen as it moves to near 17.9N 107.0W Wed \nmorning, to near 18.9N 107.8W Wed evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 19.5N 108.5W Thu morning with \nmaximum sustained 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 19.9N 109.1W Thu\nevening. Rachel is forecast to move to be east- northeast of the\nRevillagigedo Islands by Fri evening.\nScattered moderate convection remains limited and disorganized \nin association with an area of low pressure located well east- \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. This activity is seen from \nfrom 14N to 18N between 131W and 135W. A 1005 mb low, Invest\nEP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N134W. \nAlthough the system has lost some organization today, it is \nstill expected to become a tropical depression during the next \nday or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental \nconditions are expected to become less conducive for development \nlate this week. This system has a high chance of tropical \nformation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest \nNHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more \ndetails.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214331394464415751", "issued": "2026-09-29T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214331394464415751"}