{"id": "1214314904353570823", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "890\nWTPA42 PHFO 290244\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  34\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nHurricane Nolo is being disrupted by strong vertical wind shear. The\nGPM GMI microwave imagery received earlier today showed some tilt\nbetween the low- and mid-level vortex, in addition to erosion in\nportions of the southern eyewall. The satellite presentation on Nolo\nthis evening shows evidence of this disrupted inner core, with the\neye filling in on both visible and infrared imagery. Subjective\nintensity estimates from PHFO and PGTW and the objective estimates\nfrom UW-CIMSS range from 110-127 kt. Based on the quick\ndeterioration of the cyclone on satellite imagery, the\nintensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.\n \nThe current forward motion of the hurricane is 315/11 kt, as the\ncyclone continues to turn in response to an upper level trough\nlocated to its northwest. A general northward motion is expected\nthrough tomorrow. Thereafter, the upper level trough is expected to\nmerge with the hurricane. This will dramatically slow Nolo's forward\nmotion as it approaches the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea\nNational Monument. Later this week, a ridge is forecast to build\nnorthwest of Nolo and begin to steer the system westward and nearly\nparallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the monument.\nThe track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, follows\nthe latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile the many \ncomplicated steering features.\n \nThe new intensity forecast shows a faster pace of weakening than the\nprevious forecast, and is nudged toward the latest HCCA and GDM\nguidance. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even more\nthrough 72 hr, which could cause Nolo to weaken to tropical storm\nstrength during that time. Beyond 72 hr, the shear is forecast to\nsubside, and Nolo could re-intensify at a gradual pace due to dry\nmid-level atmospheric conditions. The intensity forecast is within\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}