{"id": "1214313325414219783", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "670\nWTNT41 KNHC 290236\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nThe convection around Fay continues to improve during the evening\nhours, but is still a bit sheared to the south of the low-level\ncenter. A few cloud tops near -70 C persist, with the objective\nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS in the range of 34-43 kt.\nHowever, the latest TAFB Dvorak fix was a T2.0/30 kt. Based on the\ngiven data, the intensity has been risen to 35 kt for this\nadvisory, which makes Fay a tropical storm again.\n \nThe storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated \ninitial motion of 225/8 kt. This general southwest to west-southwest \nmotion is expected to persist for the next couple of days as Fay is \nguided by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level \nridge situated over the central Atlantic. The current NHC track \nforecast is very similar to the previous one with just a few minor \nadjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.\n\nThe intensity of the cyclone is likely to continue to fluctuate \nfor the next couple of days as convection continues to pulsate, but \nthat convection will likely be sheared away from the center since \nSHIPS guidance indicates increasing shear over the next day or so. \nThe global models still show that Fay will struggle to maintain \ndeep convection once it moves into a more stable air mass and an \narea of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity forecast \nonly shows minor changes in intensity with Fay becoming a\npost-tropical cyclone in a day or so, then degenerate into a trough \nin a few days.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 26.0N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 25.1N  47.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.9N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  51.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.8N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}