{"id": "1214312839764606983", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "642\nWTPZ42 KNHC 290234\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nPolo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains\nand hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula,\nand the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning\narea within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it\nwas earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial\nintensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest\nsatellite estimates, but this could be a little generous.\n \nThe hurricane is moving northeastward at 11 kt, and that motion\nwith an increase in forward speed is expected as a mid- to\nupper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This\ntrack should take the system across Baja California and the Gulf\nof California tonight and then inland over the Mexican state of\nSonora Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous\ntrack forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n \nLittle change in strength is expected before Polo makes landfall on\nBaja California Sur. However, the combination of land interaction\nand increasing vertical wind shear should cause Polo to rapidly\nweaken overnight, but it is still expected to be a hurricane when it\nmakes its second landfall in Sonora Tuesday morning. Polo should\nquickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico later on\nTuesday, and even though a 24-hour position is provided, it seems\nunlikely that the hurricane will still be around by then.\n \nPolo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a\nstrong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.\non Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash\nflooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern\nPlains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and\nlocal National Weather Service offices for more information.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast about to make landfall as a major hurricane on\nthe west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Residents should\nremain in a safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions\nwill spread into mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A\ndangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California\nSur along with southern and central portions of Sonora tonight and\nTuesday. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening\nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nMoisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding\npotential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains\ntonight into Tuesday.\n \n3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce\nstrong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest\nMexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.\n \n4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the\nnorthwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or\nso.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}