{"msg": "493\nAXNT20 KNHC 282339\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 26.6N 45.3W at 28/2100\nUTC or 1150 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 10 ft are within 90 nm\nin the NW semicircle from the center. Numerous strong convection\nis within 60 nm of the center. A general SW to WSW motion is\nanticipated over the next several days. Little change in strength\nis expected through Tue, with weakening expected thereafter. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 74W, south of \n16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no \nconvection over the central basin associated with this wave at \nthis time. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ \nextends from 07N41W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is \nfrom 09N to 15N between 22W and 36W. Similar convection is \ndepicted from 06N to 13N between 43W and 55W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAbundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from \nthe Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper\nlevel conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection S of 265N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. A weak\nstationary front is depicted over the coastal waters from Mobile \nBay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds and\nslight seas dominate.\nFor the forecast, the weak stationary front over the north-\ncentral Gulf will dissipate through early Tue. High pressure north\nof the front is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds \nacross the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas \nover mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure \nshifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern \nPlains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the \nweek as the front approaches the northwest Gulf Fri and Sat.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep layer troughing is leading to numerous moderate to isolated\nstrong convection W of 78W. Mainly gentle trades dominate due to a\nweak pressure gradient, but fresh E winds are ongoing in the Gulf\nof Honduras and offshore Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east\nand central portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas and southeast Gulf \nhas displaced the usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. \nThis pattern is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and \nslight seas across the basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE \nwinds and building seas across the basin by mid week as the high \npressure builds north of the area, with rough seas possible in the\nYucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Fay. \nA surface trough extends from 31N67W through the central Bahamas\nand into the Florida Straits. Numerous thunderstorms continue\nalong this feature, expanding southward to 23N, W of 64W. Light \nto gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it,\nmoderate S to SW winds are noted to 61W. T.D. Fay is centered \nnear 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at \n26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle NE to\nE winds S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7\nft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near \n21N25W, and is still producing moderate cyclonic winds and 5 to 7\nft seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin,\nmoderate seas dominate.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the \ncentral Bahamas and Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate \nthrough Tue, allowing high pressure to build over the western \nAtlantic. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E winds and \n3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214278370960211975", "issued": "2026-09-28T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214278370960211975"}