{"msg": "978\nAXPZ20 KNHC 282118\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 25.0N 113.0W at 28/2100 UTC,\nmoving northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120\nkt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 M). Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Polo is \nexpected to continue moving northeast with increase in forward \nspeed. This track will take Polo's core over the Baja California\nPeninsula this evening very close to Puerto San Andresito. The \nhurricane will then briefly move over the Gulf of California \novernight, finally making a second landfall in northwestern \nmainland Mexico on Tuesday morning. Polo is a category 3 \nhurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is \nforecast to remain a powerful hurricane when it reaches Baja \nCalifornia Sur late today, and it is expected to be a hurricane \nwhen it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late tonight or early \nTue. \nHeavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California \nSur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into \nTuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo \nwill support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the \nSouthwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into \nTuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall \nassociated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service \nStorm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nDangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the \nnorthwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or \nso. Please consult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 14.2N 102.1W at 28/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are to 20 ft (6 M). Numerous strong \nconvection is within 120 nm of the center. Rachel is expected to\nmove WNW to NW over the next few days, keeping the center well\noffshore the coast of SW Mexico. However, tropical storm \nconditions are likely along the coast of Mexico within the \ntropical storm warning area by Tue. Strengthening is expected \nduring the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a \nhurricane on Tue. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally \nheavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through \nThursday. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Large waves \ncould produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions \nalong portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the \nnext several days  Please consult products from your local \nweather \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low\npressure, Invest EP91, located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands have changed little in organization this \nmorning. Environmental conditions are conducive for further \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form later \ntoday or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward\nand remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 12N92W, then\nresumes at 14N128W to 12N137W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N E of 92W and within\n180 nm S of the trough between 128W and 132W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a large majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore \nthe Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere\nover the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough\nseas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere,\nexcept slight in the northern Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 25.4N 112.7W\nthis evening, 27.4N 111.0W Tue morning, then move inland and \nweaken to a tropical depression near 29.9N 108.8W Tue evening. \nPolo will dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near \n13.8N 101.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 999 mb. Rachel will move to 14.5N \n102.6W this evening, 15.5N 104.4W Tue morning, and 16.7N 106.1W \nTue evening. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N \n107.2W Wed morning, 18.7N 108.2W Wed evening, and 19.3N 108.8W \nThu morning. Hurricane Rachel will change little in intensity as \nit moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala. Otherwise,\na rather light gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds \nacross these waters. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas \nare present in and near the Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain\nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area \nlow pressure in the far western waters that has potential for \ntropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are \nover the western portion of the area, primarily west of a \nfrom about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in\nmixed swell over these waters. Mostly gentle to moderate winds \nare elsewhere. \n \nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1005\nmb. Strong winds still encompass within about 60 nm of the\ncenter, along with seas of up to 10 ft. The low is forecast to\nmove southward tonight, then dissipate Tue. Winds will subside,\nbut rough seas will prevail due to the influences of the nearby\ntropical systems. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 25.4N 112.7W\nthis evening, 27.4N 111.0W Tue morning, then move inland and \nweaken to a tropical depression near 29.9N 108.8W Tue evening. \nPolo will dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near \n13.8N 101.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 999 mb. Rachel will move to 14.5N \n102.6W this evening, 15.5N 104.4W Tue morning, and 16.7N 106.1W \nTue evening. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N \n107.2W Wed morning, 18.7N 108.2W Wed evening, and 19.3N 108.8W \nThu morning. Hurricane Rachel will change little in intensity as \nit moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Fri. \nShowers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low\npressure, Invest EP91, located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands have changed little in organization this \nmorning. Environmental conditions are conducive for further \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form later \ntoday or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward\nand remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214250718902255623", "issued": "2026-09-28T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214250718902255623"}