{"id": "1214245003484528647", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "200\nWTPA42 PHFO 282049\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  33\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026\n\nWesterly wind shear and increasing mid-level dry air are beginning \nto take a toll on Nolo\u2019s structure this morning. Recent visible and \ninfrared satellite imagery show a sharp gradient along the western \nside of the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, while cloud tops \nare warming just east of the increasingly ragged eye. In addition, \nrecent GPM GMI microwave imagery suggests that the southeastern \nportion of the eyewall may be beginning to open up. Recent \nsubjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have also \ndecreased slightly, ranging from 123-127 kt. Given the degraded \nsatellite presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the \ninitial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.\n\nNolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the \nsouthwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered \nnorth of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is forecast to \nturn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low \napproaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more \ncomplex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play \na significant role in determining Nolo\u2019s subsequent motion. A \nstronger low would likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther \nnorth, while a weaker and more transient low would favor a faster \nturn toward the west. Recent model guidance has trended toward the \nlatter solution, and this trend is reflected in the updated \nforecast. The official NHC track forecast has therefore been \nadjusted to the left of the previous forecast and is slightly slower \nafter 36 h, bringing it closer toward the latest HCCA and GDM \nguidance.\n\nA gradual weakening trend is expected over the next day or so as \nNolo encounters increasing westerly wind shear and cooler sea \nsurface temperatures. Beyond 24 h, the approaching upper-level low \nis expected to produce significantly stronger shear, likely \nresulting in more rapid weakening. Nolo could briefly fall below \nhurricane strength around the middle of this week. Thereafter, as \nthe upper-level cyclone moves away from Nolo and its influence \ndiminishes, increasingly favorable upper-level winds and warmer \nwaters could support some restrengthening. The latest NHC forecast \nis near the middle of the model intensity consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 17.7N 163.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}