{"id": "1214243332174544903", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "922\nWTPZ43 KNHC 282040\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n300 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nSatellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Rachel remains a\nsheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the\nnorthern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with\nshear analyses showing 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear. The various \nsatellite intensity estimates are now generally clustered near 45 \nkt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is now faster toward the west-northwest or  300/9 \nkt.  For the next 60 h or so, Rachel is forecast to move generally \nwest-northwestward or northwestward on the southwest side of a \nmid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, the ridge weakens and \nshifts southeastward in response to a mid-latitude trough moving \nacross the southern United States. This evolution should result in \nRachel being left in an area of weaker steering currents causing a \nslower west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The track \nguidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario and keeps \nthe center well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The \nnew track forecast is similar to the previous forecast from 12-24 h \nand after 72h. However, it has been shifted a little northeastward \nfrom 36-72 h to lie closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and \nGoogle DeepMind forecasts.\n\nThe current northeasterly shear is still forecast to diminish a \nlittle after 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good \nagreement that moderate shear is likely to continue through at least \n96 h. Even with the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows \ngradual strengthening.  The new intensity forecast has minor \nreductions in intensity at 72 and 96 h to better match the guidance, \nbut is otherwise unchanged from the previous forecast.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area\non Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion\nof the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area\nTuesday night or on Wednesday.\n \n2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to \nportions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall \nmay produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during\nthe next several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 14.2N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 14.8N 103.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 15.9N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.2N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 18.3N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  01/0600Z 19.0N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 19.5N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 19.9N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 20.4N 110.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}