{"id": "1214241752433885191", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "836\nWTNT41 KNHC 282032\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nFay has continued to produce bursts of deep convection this \nafternoon, primarily sheared to the south of the low-level center. \nThe overall satellite presentation has improved slightly since \nearlier today, featuring cold cloud tops near -70C. Objective \nUW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimates have been running slightly \nhigher than the scatterometer-derived surface wind data from earlier \ntoday. However, the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB \nhas held steady at T2.0/30 kt. Accordingly, the initial intensity is \nmaintained at 30 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe depression is moving southwestward with an estimated initial \nmotion of 220/8 kt. A general southwest to west-southwest motion is \nanticipated over the next couple of days as Fay is steered by the \nflow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over \nthe central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially \nan update of the previous advisory and lies very close to the HCCA \ncorrected-consensus aid.\n \nFay continues to defy model guidance by maintaining deep convection \nnear its low-level center. Given that vertical wind shear remains \nlow-to-moderate and sea surface temperatures are near 29C, it is \nentirely possible that Fay could briefly regain tropical storm \nstrength tonight. Global models persist in showing that the system \nwill struggle to sustain deep convection in a day or so as it \nencounters a more stable air mass and upper-level convergence. \nNevertheless, Fay has proven to be a resilient, small system. The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast holds Fay steady through Tuesday \nfollowed by gradual weakening, with the system forecast to become a \npost-tropical cyclone in a day or so, and degenerate into a remnant \ntrough in a couple of days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 26.6N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 25.6N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 24.4N  48.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 23.4N  50.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1800Z 22.8N  52.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}