{"msg": "711\nAXNT20 KNHC 281634\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W at 28/1500\nUTC or 1100 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSW at 8 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm\nacross the NW quadrant of the depression. Numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is from 25N to 28N between 43W and \n45.5W. The T.D. is expected to move southwest and then to the \nwest-southwest, along with an increase in forward motion. Little \nchange in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and Fay \nis forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 72.5W, south \nof 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no \nconvection over the central basin associated with this wave at \nthis time. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ \nextends from 07N41W to 09N59.5W. Scattered moderate convection is\nfrom 09N to 15N between 22W and 35.5W. Similar convection is\ndepicted from 05.5N to 13N between 43W and 55W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAbundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from \nthe Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper\nlevel conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection S of 25.5N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. At \nthe surface, a lingering surface trough extends across the SW \nbasin along about 96W. A weak stationary front is depicted over the\ncoastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. \nLight and variable winds prevail across the entire basin. Seas \nbasin- wide are 3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate \nseas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin \ntonight and prevail through Tue night as high pressure builds over\nthe southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds \nand building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting midweek, \nas the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving \nthrough the Southern Plains and approaching the northwest Gulf by \nlate Fri. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA mid to upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate\nconvection west of 75W. A weak pressure gradient persists across \nthe basin, due to a weakening front N of the region, and is \ntranslating to gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and \ncentral basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle \nwinds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and \ncentral portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas has displaced the \nusual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. This pattern is \nsupporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas across \nthe basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building \nseas across the basin by mid week as the high pressure builds \nnorth of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel\nand far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Fay. \nA weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW \nAtlantic waters from 31N67W and meanders southwestward into the \ncentral Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms \ncontinue along this feature, from 23N to 31N between 64W and 77W.\nLight to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E\nof it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted to 61W. \nT.D. Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in \nbetween to high centers at 26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is \nleading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 22N between 35W \nand the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the \n1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25W, and is still \nproducing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N\nand W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds \nand seas dominate.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the \ncentral Bahamas offshore waters. Moderate SW winds and moderate \nseas ahead of the front will continue to diminish today. Looking \nahead, high pressure will build north of the area supporting \nmoderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.\n\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214194846938693639", "issued": "2026-09-28T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214194846938693639"}