{"msg": "279\nAXPZ20 KNHC 281530\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 24.2N 113.5W at 28/1500 UTC,\nmoving northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120\nkt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 M). Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Polo is \nexpected to continue moving northeast with increase in forward \nspeed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to \nmove inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late this \nafternoon or early this evening, then move inland in southern \nSonora late tonight or early on Tue. Polo is a category 2 \nhurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is \nforecast to remain a powerful hurricane when it reaches Baja \nCalifornia Sur late today, and it is expected to be a hurricane \nwhen it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late tonight or early \nTue. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 \ninches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of\n4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected \nacross southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may\nproduce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast \nrainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather \nService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the\nnext couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 13.8N 101.2W at 28/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are to 20 ft (6 M). Numerous strong\nconvection is within 120 nm of the center. Rachel is expected to\ncontinue moving WNW over the next few days, keeping the center\nwell offshore the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical \nstorm conditions are likely along the coast of Mexico within the\ntropical storm warning area by Tue. Strengthening is expected \nduring the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a \nhurricane on Tue. Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting\nportions of southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of \ndays. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nA broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-\nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better \norganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form later \ntoday or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward\nand remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern \nNicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.\nIt resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N117W and continues to \n14N128W to Invest EP91 near 12N137W and to beyond 13N140W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within \n180 nm south of the trough between 128W-132W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a good majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds \nare offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle \nwinds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle\nwinds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over \nthe offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with \nslight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to near near 24.8N \n113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then \nmove inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico \nnear 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. \nTropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is \nmoving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt \nwith gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.\nRachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N \n103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with \nmaximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to \nreach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late \nWed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with \nmaximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Hazardous marine \nconditions will be impacting the majority of the Mexican offshore\nwaters through the forecast period. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.\nSeas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of \nthe Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient \nis maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate\nseas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the \nGulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain \nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area \nlow pressure in the far western waters that has potential for \ntropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are \nover the western portion of the area, primarily west of a \nfrom about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in \nlong- period east to southeast swell over these waters Mostly \ngentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are elsewhere \nnorth of about 10N between 110W and 123W and from 06N to 15N west\nof 123W.\n \nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1004\nmb. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the \nlow in the W semicircle, and within 60 nm of the low in the E \nsemicircle. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The low\npressure will turn to the south today into tonight and south-\nsouthwest on Tue, dissipating Tue evening. Its associated \nseas will subside slightly by that time.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.8N 113.2W \nthis afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then move \ninland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico near \n29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. Tropical\nStorm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving \nwest-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with \ngusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. \nRachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N \n103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with \nmaximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to \nreach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late \nWed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with \nmaximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. \nA broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-\nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better \norganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form later \ntoday or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward\nand remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a \nhigh chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214182233886982151", "issued": "2026-09-28T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214182233886982151"}