{"id": "1214175092877557767", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "330\nWTPA42 PHFO 281453\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  32\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nIncreasing westerly wind shear is beginning to affect the structure \nof Nolo this morning. Recent infrared satellite imagery indicate a \nslight increase in asymmetric convection, with a decrease in \nconvection to the north and east of the well-defined and very warm \neye, and a larger area of convection to the south and west. Recent \nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5/127 kt, while \nobjective intensity estimates range from 121-133 kt. However, Nolo \ncontinues to have an annular structure, so the intensity has likely \nchanged little since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial \nintensity is maintained at 135 kt for this advisory. \n \nNolo is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, along the \nsouthwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered well north of the \nHawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest then north is expected \nthrough the next 36-48 h as an intensifying upper-level low \napproaches the hurricane from the northwest. The track forecast \nbecomes more complicated around midweek, as the progression and \nstrength of the aforementioned upper-low will influence the motion \nof Nolo. A stronger low will likely be less progressive and pull \nNolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low will \nresult in a faster turn toward the west. The latest NHC forecast \nfollows the latter scenario and calls for Nolo to turn back toward \nthe west-northwest then west around midweek, with this general \nmotion continuing into this weekend. This is consistent with the \nprevious forecast advisory, and is similar to the HCCA and Google \nDeepMind solutions. \n\nThe major hurricane has likely peaked in strength while over very \nwarm waters and beneath favorable upper-level winds. However, \nincreasing wind shear due to the aforementioned upper-level low \nshould support gradual weakening by tonight, followed by more rapid \nweakening beyond 24 h through the middle of the week. In 4-5 days, \nthe models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which \ncould allow for some re-strengthening. The latest NHC forecast \nremains near the upper-end of the model intensity guidance, though \nhas been lowered slightly at all forecast times. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 17.1N 162.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 18.3N 163.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 20.0N 163.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  01/0000Z 22.8N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 23.1N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 23.7N 167.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  03/1200Z 24.1N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}