{"id": "1214172340631306247", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "963\nWTPZ43 KNHC 281439\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n900 AM CST Mon Sep 28 2026\n\nSatellite imagery this morning indicates that Rachel remains a \nsheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the \nnorthern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with \nshear analyses showing about 20 kt of northeasterly shear. The \nvarious satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-50 kt and they \nhave nudged upward since the last advisory. The initial intensity \nis thus nudged upward to 45 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/7 kt.  For the next \n2-3 days, Rachel is forecast to move generally west- northwestward \non the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, \nthe ridge weakens and shifts southeastward in response to a \nmid-latitude trough moving across the southern United States. This \nevolution should result in Rachel being left in an area of weaker \nsteering currents and a slower west-northwestward to northwestward \nmotion. There is little change in the track guidance since the \nprevious advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the \nprevious track.\n\nThe current northeasterly shear is forecast to diminish a little \nafter 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement that \nmoderate shear is likely to continue through at least 96 h. Even \nwith the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows gradual \nstrengthening, with the rate of strengthening increasing a little \nafter 24 h.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous \nforecast and follows the overall trend of the guidance.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n \n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of\nMexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area\non Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion \nof the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area\nTuesday night or on Wednesday.\n\n2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to \nportions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall \nmay produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during\nthe next several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 13.8N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.5N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 15.5N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 106.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.8N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  01/0000Z 18.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 19.3N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 19.8N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  03/1200Z 20.5N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}