{"id": "1214172339866107911", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "962\nWTNT41 KNHC 281439\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nFay continues to produce bursts of deep convection, mainly to the \nsouth of the low-level center. A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass \nindicated the highest reliable satellite-derived surface winds were \naround 25-30 kt, which is in good agreement with the TAFB subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Although some of the \nUW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are higher, the initial \nintensity is held at 30 kt, leaning toward the scatterometer data.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be south-southwestward, or  \n210/8 kt. Fay should continue to move south-southwestward to \nsouthwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge \nlocated over the central Atlantic. Track guidance is in fairly good \nagreement on this general motion, with the primary differences being \nin the along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly \nfaster than the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA \ncorrected-consensus aid.\n \nFay has maintained persistent convection near the low-level center \nwithin a favorable environment over warm sea surface temperatures, \nlow vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. It is \npossible Fay could regain tropical storm strength. However, this \nfavorable environment is expected to be short-lived. Global models \ncontinue to show the system will struggle to produce deep convection \nin a day or so as it encounters a more stable air mass and \nconvergence aloft. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to \nthe previous one, showing the system dissipating late Tuesday and \ndegenerating into a surface trough shortly thereafter.\n\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 27.1N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 26.0N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 24.6N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 23.4N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.1N  50.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}