{"msg": "506\nAXNT20 KNHC 281048\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 27.9N 44.1W at 28/0900\nUTC or 1050 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSW at 6 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm\nacross the NW quadrant of the depression. Numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is from 24N to 29N between 42W and \n46W. The T.D. is expected to move southwestward and generally \nmaintain its intensity through Tue, before becoming a post \ntropical remnant low. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 72W, south of \n16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no\nconvection over the central basin associated with this wave at\nthis time. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 20N24W to 07N36W. The \nITCZ extends from 07N38W to 08N50W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is from 05N to 17N between 43W and 61W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe remnants of a dissipated stationary front persist E to W\nacross the central Gulf along about 25N. Abundant low level \nmoisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is \nconverging south of 25N, under favorable upper level conditions is\nproducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of \n24.5N between 85W and 93.5W southward to 20N and the NW Yucatan. \nAt the surface, a weak 1014 mb high is centered over the eastern-\ncentral Gulf, while a lingering surface trough extends across the\nSW basin along about 95W. A weak cold front is slowly sinking \ninto the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, \nFlorida. Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire basin, \nexcept moderate winds near the convection N of the Yucatan. Seas\nbasin-wide are 3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate \nseas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin \ntonight and prevail through Tue night as high pressure builds over\nthe southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds \nand building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting midweek, \nas the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving \nthrough the Southern Plains and approaching the northwest Gulf by \nlate Fri.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weak pressure gradient persists across the basin, due to a\nweakening front N of the region, and is translating to gentle to \nmoderate trades over the eastern and central basin as well as in \nthe Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. \nSeas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft \nin the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. Seas are 4\nto 6 ft across these Atlantic waters and passages.\nFor the forecast, the weak pressure gradient, due to the presence\nof a weakening frontal boundary N of the region, will support \ngentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through tonight. \nExpect gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through midweek\nas the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the \npattern will allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by \nThu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW \nCaribbean Thu night through Fri.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Fay. \nA weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW \nAtlantic waters from 31N68W and meanders southwestward into the\ncentral Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms \ncontinue about this feature, from 23.5N to 31N between 61W and \n76W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To \nthe E of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted to\n64W. T.D. Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W, and is sandwiched in \nbetween to high centers at 31N49W and 28N36W. This pattern is \nleading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 21N between 35W \nand the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the \n1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N24W, and is still \nproducing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N\nand W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds \nand seas dominate.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms will persist along a trough reaching from 29N68W to\nthe central Bahamas offshore waters. A dissipating stationary \nfront W of the trough, and reaching from 31N68W to Andros Island\nwill dissipate toight. Moderate SW winds and moderate seas ahead \nof the front will continue to diminish today. Looking ahead, high \npressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh\nE winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214126962502500359", "issued": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214126962502500359"}