{"msg": "356\nAXPZ20 KNHC 281008\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0945 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 23.6N 113.8W, or about \n110 nm southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 28/0900 UTC, \nmoving north-northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with \ngusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 ). Satellite \nimagery shows that Polo's overall structure hasn't changed much \nduring the several hours. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nis within 60 nm of the center. Polo is expected to make a \nturn toward the northeast his afternoon, followed by a slight \nincrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of \nPolo is expected to move inland along the coast of Baja \nCalifornia Sur late this afternoon or early this evening, then \nmove inland in southern Sonora late Mon night or early on Tue.\nPolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane \nWind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength \nwhen it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is \nexpected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland \nMexico late tonight or early Tue. Polo is expected to produce\nrainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja \nCalifornia Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum \ntotals of 8 inches are expected across southern and central \nportions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with \nPolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total \nRainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the\nnext couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 13.4N 100.4W, or about \n210 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 28/0900 UTC, moving west- \nnorthwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.\nMaximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. \nPeak seas are to 16 ft (5 m). Satellite imagery shows that \nRachel's overall cloud pattern appears more improved than 6 \nhours ago. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm of the \ncenter in the SW quadrant, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 30 nm in\nthe N semicircle. Rachel is forecast to acquire a faster west- \nnorthwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the\nforecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well \noffshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm\nconditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the \ntropical storm watch area by Tue. Strengthening is expected \nduring the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a \nhurricane on Tue. Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting\nportions of southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of \ndays. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nA broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east- \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous moderate\nto strong convection from 12N to 15N between 135W and 140W. as it\ncontinues to become better organized. Environmental conditions \nare expected to be conducive for further development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. \nThe system should move generally northeastward and remain well \neast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance \nover the next week. This system has a high chance of tropical \nformation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the \nnext week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather \nOutlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern \nNicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.\nIt resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N117W and continues to \n14N128W to Invest EP91 near 12N137W and to beyond 13N140W. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within \n180 nm south of the trough between 128W-132W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThese systems will impact a good majority of the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds \nare offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle \nwinds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle\nwinds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over \nthe offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with \nslight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near\nnear 24.8N 113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late \ntonight, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over \nnorthwest Mexico near 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate \nlate Tue night. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 \nAM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 1001 mb. Rachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this \nafternoon, to near 14.9N 103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N \n105.3W Tue afternoon and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N \n106.6W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85\nkt. Rachel is forecast to reach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon,\nto near 19.0N 108.5W late Wed night and move to near 19.6N \n109.2W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts \n105 kt. Hazardous marine conditions will be impacting the \nmajority of the Mexican offshore waters through the forecast \nperiod. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.\nSeas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of \nthe Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient \nis maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate\nseas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the \nGulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain \nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a \nbroad area low pressure in the far western waters that has \npotential for tropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are \nover the western portion of the area, primarily west of a \nfrom about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in \nlong- period east to southeast swell over these waters Mostly \ngentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are elsewhere \nnorth of about 10N between 110W and 123W and from 06N to 15N west\nof 123W.\n \nThe remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1004\nmb. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the \nlow in the W semicircle and within 60 nm of the low in the E \nsemicircle. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The low\npressure will turn to the south today into tonight and south-\nsouthwest on Tue, dissipating Tue evening. Its associated \nseas will subside slightly by that time.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.8N \n113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then \nmove inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico \nnear 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. \nTropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is \nmoving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt \nwith gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.\nRachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N \n103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with \nmaximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to \nreach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late \nWed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with \nmaximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. \nA broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-\nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing moderate to \nstrong convection from 12N to 15N between 135W and 140W as it \ncontinues to become better organized. Environmental conditions \nare expected to be conducive for further development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. \nThe system should move generally northeastward and remain well \neast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance \nover the next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214119080510816263", "issued": "2026-09-28T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214119080510816263"}