{"id": "1214103999785205767", "title": "Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T09:00:00Z", "msg": "233\nWTPZ32 KNHC 280852\nTCPEP2\n \nBULLETIN\nHurricane Polo Advisory Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026\n \n...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...\n...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS MORNING IN\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...\n \n \nSUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION\n----------------------------------------------\nLOCATION...23.6N 113.8W\nABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO\nABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H\nPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES\n \n \nWATCHES AND WARNINGS\n--------------------\nCHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:\n \nThe government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch along the \neast coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia \nSan Juan Bautista to a Hurricane Warning.\n \nSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:\n \nA Hurricane Warning is in effect for...\n* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe\n* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan \nBautista\n* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito\n \nA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...\n* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to\nPunta Eugenia\n* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San\nEvaristo\n* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...\n* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to\nPunta Eugenia.\n* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San\nEvaristo.\n* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo\n \nA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected\nsomewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 30\nhours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed\nto completion.\n \nA Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible\nwithin the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.\n \nA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are\nexpected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12\nto 24 hours.\n \nInterests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder\nof Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.\n \nFor storm information specific to your area, please monitor\nproducts issued by your national meteorological service.\n \n \nDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK\n----------------------\nAt 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located\nnear latitude 23.6 North, longitude 113.8 West. Polo is now moving\ntoward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the \nnortheast is expected this afternoon, followed by a slight increase \nin forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is \nexpected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late \nthis afternoon or early this evening, then move inland in southern \nSonora late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.\n \nMaximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher\ngusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nHurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane \nstrength when it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is \nexpected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico \nlate tonight or early Tuesday morning.\n \nHurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the\ncenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles\n(165 km).\n \nThe estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).\n \n \nHAZARDS AFFECTING LAND\n----------------------\nKey messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone\nDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.\n \nWIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area\nalong the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,\nwith tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of\nthe warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected\nto spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later\ntoday and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the\nHurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland\nnorthwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical\nstorm conditions expected to begin tonight.\n \nRAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12\ninches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4\nto 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across \nsouthern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,\nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic\navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in\nareas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be\naccompanied by large and destructive waves.\n \nSURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the\nnext couple of days. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nNEXT ADVISORY\n-------------\nNext intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.\nNext complete advisory at 800 AM MST.\n \n"}