{"id": "1214103446728998919", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T09:00:00Z", "msg": "189\nWTPA42 PHFO 280849\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  31\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Nolo has continued to intensify, \nwith a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast of very cold cloud tops \nsurrounding the 30 n mi diameter eye.  The eye temperatures have \nwarmed to as much as 21 deg C.  The advisory intensity is set at \n135 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC \nand PHFO Honolulu and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.  The \nupper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants of the \nhurricane.  Geostationary and microwave imagery show that Nolo \ncontinues to lack outer convective banding features, and is \ntherefore maintaining the characteristics of an annular hurricane.\n\nNolo continues to move west-northwestward at around 290/10 kt while \nbeing steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-tropospheric \nridge.  A mid- to upper-level cyclone located about 10 degrees to \nthe northwest of the hurricane is expected to induce a turn toward \nthe northwest and north within the next 36 hours. Then, Nolo should \ndecelerate and turn westward while moving around the circulation of \nthe cyclone and merging with it.  A mid-level ridge building to the \nnorthwest of Nolo should eventually cause it to turn westward late \nin the forecast period.  The official track forecast is very similar \nto the one from the previous advisory, and remains in good agreement \nwith the HCCA and Google DeepMind guidance.\n\nThe hurricane has been situated in an environment that is quite \nconducive for strengthening, with low vertical wind shear and \nsufficiently warm sea surface temperatures.  This regime should \npersist for at least the next 12 hours or so.  However, the global \nmodels indicate that vertical shear over Nolo should increase \nsubstantially by Tuesday.  Therefore, the hurricane should begin \nweakening within 24 hours or so.  Nonetheless, Nolo's annular \nstructure could result in a slower rate of weakening than seen in \ntypical hurricanes.  In 4-5 days, the models suggest a more \nfavorable upper-level flow pattern, which could result in some \nre-strengthening.  The official intensity forecast remains at the \nhigh end of the model guidance.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0900Z 16.5N 161.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 17.5N 162.5W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 19.2N 163.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 21.0N 163.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 22.4N 163.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  30/1800Z 22.8N 163.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 23.0N 164.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  02/0600Z 23.6N 166.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  03/0600Z 24.0N 169.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}