{"id": "1214103317469036551", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T09:00:00Z", "msg": "179\nWTNT41 KNHC 280848\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026\n\nFay's convection has persisted a bit longer overnight than \npreviously seen the last couple of days. Dvorak intensity estimates \nappear to have picked up on this, with TAFB providing a subjective \nestimate of T2.0/30 kt. Based primarily on Fay's satellite \npresentation since the last advisory, the initial intensity was \nraised slightly to 30 kt, but Fay remains a tropical depression.\n\nThe forecast increase in forward speed, as well as a turn to the \nsouthwest, is becoming more evident on satellite imagery. For this \nadvisory, the initial motion is set at 210/6 kt. Track guidance \nremains in fairly good agreement on Fay tracking to the southwest \nand then west-southwest as it is steered by the prevailing \neasterlies along the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical \nhigh. The greatest uncertainty across the guidance is the forward \nspeed of the depression. The latest track forecast shows a faster \nforward speed over the next 48 h, in close agreement with the HCCA \nguidance.\n\nSo long as organized deep convection persists and scatterometry \ndata depicts a closed low, Fay will remain a tropical depression. \nEven as SHIPS guidance shows Fay entering a favorable environment \nin terms of SSTs, vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture, the \ncurrent forecast thinking is that Fay's presence under mid- to \nupper-level ridging will drive convergence aloft and weaken its \ncirculation to the point of dissipation. Global models agree on this \nand have Fay ultimately dissipating during the day Wednesday, with \nthe exception of the UKMET, which holds onto the cyclone \nthrough the end of the week. The latest intensity forecast shows \nFay becoming post-tropical late Tuesday, with dissipation a day or \ntwo later.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0900Z 27.9N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 27.0N  44.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 25.5N  46.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 24.4N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0600Z 23.2N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}