{"msg": "767\nAXNT20 KNHC 280459\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 28.5N  43.8W at 28/0300 \nUTC or 1015 nm W-SW of the Azores, moving S at 5 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 120 nm\nacross the SW semicircle of the depression. Numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is from 26.5N to 28,5N between 43.5W \nand 45W. The T.D. is expected to move southwestward and generally\nmaintain its intensity through Tue morning, before becoming a post\ntropical remnant low. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 71W, south of 16N into\nwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate\nconvection is occurring on either side of the wave, from 14N to\n15.5N between 68W and 75W, scattered moderate convection\naccompanies the wave across western Colombia S of 10N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near \n20.5N16.5W extending to 1011 mb low pressure near 21N24W then\nsouthwestward to 07.5N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N36W to\n08N46W to 11.5N59W to 11N62W. Scattered moderate convection is\nnear Africa from 06.5N to 13.5N E of 20W, from 05N to 11.5N \nbetween 26W and 36W, from 06N to 11N between 46W and 53W, and from\n13N to 15N between 55W and 61W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe remnants of a dissipated stationary front persist E to W\nacross the central Gulf along about 25N. Abundant low level \nmoisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is \nconverging south of 25N, under favorable upper level conditions is\nproducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of \n24.5N between 85W and 93.5W southward to 20N and the NW Yucatan. \nAt the surface, a weak 1013 mb high is centered just off the mouth\nof the Mississippi River, while a lingering surface trough \nextends across the SW basin along about 95W. A weak cold front is \nslowly sinking into the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near \nMexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds prevail across the \nentire basin, except moderate winds near the convection N of the \nYucatan. Buoy observations across the basin suggest that seas are \n3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas\nwill become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin through \nthe early part of the week, as high pressure builds over the \nsoutheast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE winds \nand building seas over the western Gulf starting midweek, as the \nhigh pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through\nthe Southern Plains, and approaching the northwest Gulf by late \nFri. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weak pressure gradient persists across the basin, due to the \npassage of a cold front N of the region, and is translating to \ngentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central basin as \nwell as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail \nelsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and\n3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. \nA middle level trough along about 80W and N of 16N is supporting\nscattered moderate convection S of 15.5N and W of the tropical\nwave along 71W. A low level easterly wave moving across the Lesser\nAntilles tonight is interacting with an upper low across the\nAtlantic to the NE of the Leeward Islands to produce scattered\nmoderate convection and moderate easterly winds from 13N to 17N\nbetween 56W and the islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these\nAtlantic waters and passages.\nFor the forecast, the weak pattern across the region is expected\nto persist, and will support gentle to moderate trades across the\nCaribbean through Mon night. Expect gentle to moderate E to SE \nwinds thereafter through midweek as the high pressure build north \nof the area. Looking ahead, high pressure is expected to move into\nthe western Atlantic Wed night, and will lead to moderate to \nfresh trade winds and building seas by Thu, with rough seas \npossible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night \nthrough Fri under fresh SE winds.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Fay. \nThe weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW\nAtlantic waters from 31N68W and meanders southwestward into the \nNW Bahamas. to the S of this boundary, an elongated low level \ntrough extends from 30N66W to 27N72W the central Bahamas and \ncentral Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms \ncontinue about this feature, from 23.5N to 31N between 61W and \n76W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To \nthe E of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted in \nrecent scatterometer data N of 24N and E of the trough to 64W. \nLong period northerly swell generated by the recent strong low \npressure across the NW Atlantic continues to move through the \nregional waters W of 55W. The swell is subsiding from recent days,\nbut remains 6 to 8 ft N of 23.5N between 61W and 73W, and 3 to 5 \nft elsewhere W of 55W. T.D. Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W, and \nis sandwiched in between to high centers at 31N49W and 28N36W. \nThis pattern is leading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of \n21N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. \nFurther east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N 24W, \nand is still producing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough \nseas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, \nmoderate winds and seas dominate.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms will persist tonight along a trough reaching from \n30N66W to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and \nrough seas in N swell along the east side of the trough are slowly  \ndiminishing. This will leave gentle to moderate winds and slight \nseas across the region starting tonight. Looking ahead, high \npressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh\nE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 25N by midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214058245926223879", "issued": "2026-09-28T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214058245926223879"}