{"msg": "559\nAXPZ20 KNHC 280405\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0315 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about \n150 nm southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC, \nmoving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to\n135 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). The satellite depict\nits cloud pattern as a little asymmetric, with the coldest cloud\ntops currently located over the western half of the circulation.\nNumerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the\ncenter in the NE quadrant, 30 nm of the center in the SE\nquadrant, 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 180 nm of \nthe center in the NW quadrant. Polo should maintain its \ncurrent motion for next several hours, followed by a turn toward\nthe northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected\nto approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move \nacross the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern \nmainland Mexico by earl on Tue.  Polo is forecast to be at or \nnear major hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur\non Mon, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes \nlandfall in mainland Mexico early on Tue. Polo is expected to\nproduce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of\n12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall \ntotals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across \nportions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with \nPolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total \nRainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur\nduring the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about 240\nnm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC, moving west at 6 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are \nto 15 ft (4.5 m). The last few visible satellite images showed \nthat Rachel has a broad center. Numerous strong convection is \nwithin 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to \n15N between 98W and 106W. Rachel is forecast to attain a faster \nwest-northwestward motion during the next few days. On the \nforecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well \noffshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm\nconditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the \ntropical storm watch area by Tue. Swells generated by Rachel \nwill begin affecting portions of southern coast of Mexico during \nthe next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nA Gale Warning remains in effect for the remnant low of Odalys \nlocated near 23N114W with a pressure of 1000 mb. Gale winds of \n30 to 40 kt with the low are forecast to dimnish to just below \ngale-force in a few hours. Seas are 10 to 17 ft with the gale\nwinds. They will begin to gradually starting late tonight into \nMon morning. Satellite imagery shows that the low is devoid of \ndeep convection. A slow northeastward motion is expected through \ntonight, followed by a turn to the south, or south-southwest on \nMon, then dissipate by around midweek.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.\nA broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from \n12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection\nif from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind \ndata indicate that the system is becoming better organized. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form during \nthe next day or two. The system should move generally \nnortheastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation \nwithin the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern \nNicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.\nIT resumes to the southwest of Polo at 15N120W and continues \nto 13N123W to Invest EP91 NEAR 12N137W and to beyond 11N140W.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen\nfrom 07N to 12N between 120W-131W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.\nThe impacts from these systems will be over a good majority of \nthe forecast waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to \nnorth winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light \nto gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light\nto gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas \nremain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf \nsections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.1N \n113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then move \ninland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico Tue \nmorning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and \ndissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 12.9N 99.8W \nat 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 1003 mb. Rachel will move to near 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to\nnear 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening, to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning,\nthen strengthen to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds 70 \nkt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W Tue evening. Rachel is forecast \nto move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed morning and to near 18.4N 108.2W\nWed evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 19.1N 109.0W \nlate Thu with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. \nHazardous marine conditions will be impacting the majority of the\nMexican offshore waters through the forecast period.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.\nSeas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of \nthe Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient \nis maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate\nseas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the \nGulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain \nmoderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with \nmostly moderate seas through the period.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Rachel, on  Gale Warning \nfor Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, and on a broad area low \npressure in the far western waters that has potential for \ntropical cyclone formation this week.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure \nover the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh \nnortheast winds covering the waters west of a line from about \n30N120W to 19N132W to the area of the broad low pressure in the \nwestern part of the domain. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are \nelsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of \nrough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near\n24.1N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then\nmove inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico\nTue morning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and \ndissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will reach \nnear 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to near 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening,\nto near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then strengthen to a hurricane\nwith maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W\nTue evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed\nmorning and to near 18.4N 108.2W Wed evening. Rachel is forecast\nto move to near 19.1N 109.0W late Thu with maximum sustained \nwinds 85 kt gusts 105 kt.\nA broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from \n12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection\nif from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind \ndata indicate that the system is becoming better organized. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form during \nthe next day or two. The system should move generally \nnortheastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation \nwithin the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1214047619699736583", "issued": "2026-09-28T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1214047619699736583"}