{"id": "1214032144772694023", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "913\nWTPZ43 KNHC 280246\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n900 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nThe last few visible satellite images of the day indicate that \nRachel continues to have a broad center. A recently received \nOceansat-3 scatterometer pass that partially sampled the system a \nfew hours ago indicated winds to at least 35 kt about 120 n mi west \nof the center. Objective satellite intensity estimates range from \n35-40 kt and the Dvorak classification from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt. \nBased on these data, and the broad structure of the tropical \ncyclone, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nRachel is moving westward at 280/6 kt. The overall track philosophy\nhas not changed for this forecast. A deep-layer ridge building over\nMexico is expected to steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a\nfaster forward speed through mid-week. On Thursday, a weakness in\nthe ridge, caused by a trough over the southwestern United States,\nwill cause the cyclone to move more slowly on a similar\nnorthwestward heading. The new track forecast is similar to the\nadvisory, and blends the Google DeepMind (GDM) and HFIP Corrected\nConsensus Aid (HCCA).\n \nThe tropical storm continues to endure approximately 20 kt of\nnortheasterly shear, which is clearly evident on satellite imagery.\nGiven the broad structure and moderate to high wind shear, gradual\nintensification is forecast over the next couple of days. The shear\nis expected to subside early next week and intensification is likely\nto continue thereafter, with Rachel forecast to become a hurricane\non Tuesday. Rachel could then track over the cool wake from\nHurricane Polo, though recent drifter data captured vertical\nprofiles that show high ocean heat content (OHC) persists in the\nregion. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance\nenvelope, and blends the GDM and HCCA solutions.\n\nThe analyzed and forecast tropical storm force wind radii for Rachel \nare larger in this forecast than the previous one. Due to the \nproximity of tropical storm force winds to the coast, the government \nof Mexico has issue a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo to \nPlaya Perula.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of \nMexico, tropical storm force winds are possible along a portion of \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area \non Tuesday.\n\n2. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during \nthe next several days.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 12.9N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 13.3N 100.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 14.2N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 15.2N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.4N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  30/1200Z 17.5N 107.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 18.4N 108.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 19.1N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 20.0N 109.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}