{"id": "1214030066903580679", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "603\nWTNT41 KNHC 280236\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026\n \nLittle can be said about Fay that hasn't been said already across \nprevious advisories. The storm continues to undergo rounds of \ndiurnal, pulsating convection, allowing for it to remain a tropical \ndepression despite being disorganized and weak. Scatterometry data \nfrom around 2300 UTC also confirms that a closed, albeit weak, \ncirculation persists. With max winds from this scatterometry pass \nreading around 20 kt, the initial intensity for Fay was set at 25 \nkt.\n \nThe initial motion was set at 190/5 kt. Fay is beginning to pick up \nspeed as it escapes the influence of the subtropical Atlantic high \nand is carried more by the prevailing easterlies. A brief \nsoutheastward shift was evident on satellite just a few hours ago, \nbut now Fay is beginning its forecasted southwestward to \nwest-southwestward turn. The only notable change in the latest \ntrack forecast was to increase Fay's forward speed during the \nlatter half of the forecast period, to fall better in line with the\nHCCA guidance.\n\nGlobal models continue to suggest that Fay will degenerate into \na trough during the middle of the week, with post-tropical \ntransition occuring just before. Fluctuations in Fay's intensity \nare expected so long as these diurnal cycles of convection \ncontinue, however with now two consecutive scatterometry passes \ndepicting Fay's max winds at around 21 kt, the intensity forecast \nwas left at 25 kt throughout the period, with little in the \nguidance and synoptic environment to suggest that Fay will \nstrengthen meaningfully beyond that before finally dissipating. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  43.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 27.6N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 26.3N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 25.2N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0000Z 24.5N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  30/1200Z 24.3N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}