{"id": "1214029968957112327", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "596\nWTPZ42 KNHC 280235\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nPolo is approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a powerful \nmajor hurricane. Satellite images suggest that the cyclone is \nmaintaining its intensity with a ragged eye feature persisting, \nsurrounded by intense deep convection. The cloud pattern is a little \nasymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently located over the \nwestern half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity \nestimates are largely unchanged, and generally range from 100 to 115 \nkt. Based on that data and steady state appearance, the initial wind \nspeed is held at 110 kt.\n\nThe major hurricane is moving northward at about 10 kt on the \nwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern \nMexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday as a trough \namplifies over California, taking the core of the hurricane over the \nBaja California Peninsula Monday afternoon or evening. Polo is then \nexpected to briefly pass over the Gulf of California before making a \nsecond landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico Monday night or \nearly Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous \nforecast, and this one lies near the best-performing models of the \nyear so far, HCCA and GDMI.\n\nNo significant change in strength is expected before Polo reaches \nBaja California, and based on the model guidance, it seems likely \nto be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes \nlandfall there. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase \nin wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still \nexpected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After \nthe second landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged \nterrain of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the \nprevious one, and in good agreement with the majority of the \nguidance.\n \nAlthough Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the \nsouthern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the \nsouthwestern United States during the next few days, and may \nindirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in \nthe region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for \nmore information.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula as a hurricane late Monday, within the \nHurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin to \ndeteriorate there Monday morning, making further preparations \ndifficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to \nspread across Baja California through Monday and into mainland \nMexico on early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, especially in \nareas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California \nSur along with southern and central portions of Sonora Monday into \nTuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo \nwill support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the \nSouthwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late Monday into \nTuesday.\n \n3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of\nthe northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next\ncouple of days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 22.8N 114.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N 113.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 25.9N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 28.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  30/0000Z 31.3N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}