{"id": "1214029372447916039", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "557\nWTPA42 PHFO 280232\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  30\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026\n\nThe satellite presentation of Nolo has continued to improve this \nafternoon. Recent visible and infrared imagery reveals a thick, \nsymmetric ring of deep, cold convection completely surrounding a \nwarm eye, with a temperature nearing 20C. Furthermore, the cyclone \nis largely devoid of outer rainbands, suggesting that Nolo is taking \non the characteristics of an annular hurricane, which is further \nsupported by recent AMSR3 microwave images. Subjective Dvorak and \nobjective intensity estimates have steadily risen during the past \nseveral hours. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from the \nJTWC and HFO are T6.0 and T6.5, respectively, while objective \nestimates from UW-CIMSS currently range from 113 to 131 kt. Based on \na blend of these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial \nintensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 \nkt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight, and \nthis general motion should continue through Tuesday as Nolo is \nsteered between a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest and a \nmid-level ridge located north of the main Hawaiian Islands. During \nthe latter half of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to \nturn back toward the west as it moves around the northern periphery \nof the low. The latest official track forecast is very similar to \nthe previous advisory and lies in agreement with the HCCA and Google \nDeepMind aids.\n \nNolo is currently taking advantage of a highly favorable environment \ncharacterized by low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface \ntemperatures. This should allow for continued strengthening in the \nshort term, with internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement \ncycles likely dictating any intensity fluctuations over the next 24 \nto 36 hours. Beyond that time, vertical wind shear is forecast to \nincrease as the system interacts with the upper-level low, which \nshould induce a weakening trend. However, given its developed \nannular structure, Nolo will likely be more resilient to this \nadverse environment and decay at a slower rate than typical tropical \ncyclones. Toward the end of the forecast period, the shear is \nexpected to decrease. Because the cyclone will remain over warm \nSSTs, some restrengthening is possible by day 4 or 5, although there \nis some bifurcation in the models at that time. To account for both \nthe recent strengthening trend and the historically slow decay rate \nof annular hurricanes, the official intensity forecast remains near \nor above the high end of the guidance suite in the short term, then \nfalling closer towards the HCCA intensity aid in the middle to \nlatter part of the forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 16.3N 160.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.9N 161.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 18.3N 163.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 20.2N 163.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 21.9N 163.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  30/1200Z 22.8N 163.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 23.0N 164.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 23.7N 166.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 24.3N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}