{"msg": "877\nAXPZ20 KNHC 272121\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 114.1W at 27/2100 UTC,\nmoving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.\nPeak seas are near 40 ft (12 M). Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Polo is \nexpected to continue moving northward tonight, then turn NE Mon. \nOn the forecast track, Polo will approach the west coast of Baja\nCalifornia Sur Mon, move across the Peninsula Mon night, then \napproach NW mainland Mexico by early Tue. Polo is a Category 3 on\nthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in \nstrength are possible over the next day or two, but Polo is \nforecast to remain a strong hurricane when it reaches Baja \nCalifornia Sur Mon. \nPolo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches \nwith isolated amounts in excess of 12 inches across portions of \nBaja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For\na complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, \nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall \nGraphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur\nduring the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward\nalong the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the\nremainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nNewly-upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.6N \n99.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M). \nNumerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. A\ncontinued WNW motion with an increase in forward speed is \nexpected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the \ncenter of Rachel is expected to remain well S of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next\nfew days, and Rachel is forecast to become hurricane Tue. \nOdalys has become less organized today and no longer has tropical\ncharacteristics. Therefore, Odalys is now a post-tropical\ncyclone. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys is centered near 22.8N 123.1W at\n27/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40\nkt with gusts to 50 kt. With winds of 35 to 40 kt expected into\ntonight, a Gale Warning has now been issued within 90 nm of the\ncenter of Odalys. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft (6.0 M), also\ncontinue near Odalys, and these hazardous seas will only slowly\nsubside tonight. Scattered moderate convection persists within\nabout 60 nm of the center, and this activity should dissipate\nthis evening. A slow NE motion is expected through tonight,\nfollowed by a turn S or SSW Mon. Odalys is expected to dissipate\nby mid-week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at\n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys, and\n  Rachel. \nA broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and \nthunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be \nconducive for further development, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form in the next several days. The system should move \ngenerally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of  the \nHawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical \nformation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the \nnext week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather \nOutlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 12N96W. It \nresumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure\nnear 12N138W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nseen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, and\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Odalys.\nThe impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.\nElsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle \nwinds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over \nthe offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with \nslight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W\nthis evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon \nevening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W \nTue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near\n31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical \nStorm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to\n13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon \nevening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning,\nthen been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will \nbe at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in \nintensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands \nearly Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N \n123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N \n122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N \n122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W \nTue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed \nmorning, then dissipate early Thu.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.\nSeas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of \nthe Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds \ndominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are\npresent in and near the Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, fresh SE to S winds over the western portions \nof the Guatemalan offshore waters will continue to diminish. \nWest to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the\nnext few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week \nalong with mostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, Post-\nTropical Cyclone Odalys, and on low pressure in the far western\nwaters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this\nweek.\nAway from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure \nover the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh \nnortheast winds covering the waters west of a line from about \n30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Mostly gentle to moderate winds \nare elsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area \nof rough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W\nthis evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon \nevening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W \nTue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near\n31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical \nStorm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to\n13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon \nevening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning,\nthen been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will \nbe at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in \nintensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands \nearly Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N \n123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N \n122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N \n122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W \nTue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed \nmorning, then dissipate early Thu.\nA broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and \nthunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be \nconducive for further development, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form in the next several days. The system should move \ngenerally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of  the \nHawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical \nformation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the \nnext week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213968149341077511", "issued": "2026-09-27T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213968149341077511"}