{"id": "1213962518832381959", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T21:00:00Z", "msg": "097\nWTPA42 PHFO 272052 CCA\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  29\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026\n\nCorrected typo in the first paragraph\n\nThe inner core of Nolo has continued to show signs of improvement, \nas the eye has become better defined over the last several hours. \nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight level winds \naround 106 kt, which supports surface winds around 95 kt. In \naddition, the aircraft found that the pressure has been decreasing \nover the course the flight. A dropsonde into the northern eyewall \nobserved a 500 m layer average of 106 kt. Furthermore, the objective \nintensity estimates are in the range of 87-119 kt. Based on the \ncurrent data, the initial intensity has been raised to 100 kt for \nthis advisory.\n \nThe cyclone is moving mainly westward or 280/10 kt. Nolo is expected \nto continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge \nfor the next 24 h or so. Afterwards, the hurricane will turn \nnorthwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low. \nNear the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn toward \nthe west again, as Nolo moves around the northern side of the low. \nThe official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some \nminor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.\n \nNolo is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind \nshear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for \ncontinued intensification for the next 24 hours. After 36-48 h, \ngradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate \nthat wind shear will increase in the 36-96 h period due to the \ninteraction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear \nmay relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC \nintensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance \nenvelope, however it is in line with the HCCA forecast aid in the \nshort term. \n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Strong and gusty winds are expected across the main Hawaiian \nIslands through today.\n\n2. Large and damaging waves with high surf are likely along portions \nof the east-ward facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands through \ntoday. Southward facing beaches are likely to see increased swell \nand surf during the next few days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/2100Z 16.2N 159.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}