{"id": "1213959380689092615", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T21:00:00Z", "msg": "716\nWTPZ43 KNHC 272036\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n300 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nRecent visible satellite imagery shows that banding features\nassociated the cyclone remain fragmented, but a couple of ASCAT\npasses from just after 1500 UTC revealed an area of 35 kt winds to\nthe southeast of the center.  Therefore, the system has reached\ntropical storm status, making Rachel the seventeenth named storm in \nthe eastern Pacific basin this season.\n\nRachel is moving west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. A deep-layer \nridge building over Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone \nwest-northwest at a faster forward speed through mid-week.  This \nheading should result in the core of the storm passing well south \nof the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  \nAfter 72 hours, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge \nover northwestern Mexico as a trough moves into the southwestern \nUnited States.  This should cause Rachel to slow, but remain on a \nnorthwestward to west-northwestward track when it is located well \nsouthwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The NHC track \nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the \ntypically reliable consensus aids. \n\nThe SHIPS model continues to diagnose about 20 kt of northeasterly \nshear over the system.  The shear does not appear to be prohibitive \nfor strengthening.  In fact, most of the intensity guidance calls \nfor gradual strengthening during the next couple few days, and \nRachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. After that \ntime, there is uncertainty with regards to SSTs as Rachel may track \nover the cool wake from Hurricane Polo.  As a result, the NHC \nintensity forecast plateaus near the end of the forecast period \nbetween the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus \nsolutions. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/2100Z 12.6N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 13.1N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}