{"msg": "170\nAXPZ20 KNHC 271538\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.3N 113.9W at 27/1500 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with\ngusts to 135 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye \nfeature, with numerous strong convection within 90 nm of center. \nPeak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is \nexpected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on \nMonday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the \nwest coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the \npeninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland \nMexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the \nnext few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it\napproaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of \n10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall \nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially \nin areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast \nrainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather \nService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur\nduring the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward\nalong the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the\nremainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 22.6N 123.4W at 27/1500\nUTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60\nkt. Peak seas are around 27 ft (7.5 M). Odalys's overall \nconvective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped \ncentral dense overcast. Numerous moderate convection is within 90\nnm of the center. Odalys will maintain its present motion \nthrough this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- \nsoutheast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over \nthe next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post- \ntropical cyclone by Mon.\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.7N 98.6W at\n27/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30\nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M). \nNumerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. \nTropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to \nand offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening \nis forecast during the next few days, and the depression could \nbecome a tropical storm by tonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov\n  for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression\n  Eighteen-E.\nShowers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of \nlow pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \nfurther development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in \nthe next several days. The system is expected to move generally \nnortheastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation \nwithin the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. \nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from central Panama to 08N82W to\n06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical \nDepression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of \nOdalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W \n1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N \nto 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on Tropical \nDepression Eighteen-E.\nThe impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.\nElsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle \nwinds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer \ndata. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the\nsouthern Gulf of California, with slight\nseas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N \n114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to \n25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and \nmove inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W\nlate Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys \nwill weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon,\nbecome post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning,\nto near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near\n21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue \nafternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early \non Thu. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N \n99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N \n100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 \nkt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W\nlate Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and \nmove to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E \nwill move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum \nsustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be \nimpacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during \nthe forecast period.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of \nAcapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in \nsouthwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore \nwaters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. \nModerate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near\nthe Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to \npull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the \nweek allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western \nportion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west \nto northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next \nfew days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with \nmostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on low pressure\ndeveloping in the far western portion of the waters. \nAway from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure \nover the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh \nnortheast winds covering the waters west of a line from about \n30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft \nin long-period east to southeast swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate \nwinds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have \ndeveloped from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical \ncyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N \nand east of about 137W.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N \n114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to \n25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and \nmove inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W\nlate Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys \nwill weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon,\nbecome post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning,\nto near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near\n21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue \nafternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early \non Thu.\nShowers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of \nlow pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \nfurther development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in \nthe next several days. The system is expected to move generally \nnortheastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian \nIslands.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213900732423962631", "issued": "2026-09-27T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213900732423962631"}