{"id": "1213893299717406727", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "343\nWTPA42 PHFO 271500\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  28\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nNolo's structure has continued to improve over the last several \nhours with the eye becoming better defined as as cloud tops have \ncooled around the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Unit \nHurricane Hunter aircraft is sill investigating Nolo at this time \nand so far have found peak flight level winds around 92 kt, which \nwould support for an intensity around 85 kt. There was also a \ndropsonde in the northwest eyewall that observed a 500 m layer \naverage of 104 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates \nare in the range of 87-109 kt. With the current improvement in the \nstucture of Nolo, the lowering minimum pressure observed with the \naircraft, and assuming higher flight-level winds exist in the north \neyewall where the aircraft has not yet sampled, the initial \nintensity has been raised to 90 kt for this advisory. \n \nThe hurricane is moving mainly west-southwestward or 250/9 kt. Nolo \nis expected to continue to move on the southwestern side of a \nmid-level ridge for the next day or so. Afterwards, the cyclone \nshould turn northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to \nupper-level low. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo should \nthen turn back to the west again, as the hurricane rotated around \nthe northern side of the low. The official track forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one just some minor adjustments based on the \nHCCA and the GDMI forecast aids. \n\nThe cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment with \nlow wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow \nfor continued intensification for the next 24 hours, and Nolo is \nforecast to become a major hurricane in the next 12 h and peak as a \ncategory 4 hurricane. After 48 h, gradual weakening is expected \nas the SHIPS model outputs indicate that wind shear will increase in \nthe 48-96 h period due to the interaction with the upper-level \nlow. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear may relax again and this could \nallow some restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is still on \nthe high end of the guidance envelope, but slightly under the HCCA \nand some of the hurricane regional models. \n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian \nIslands through today, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should \ncontinue to monitor the progress of Nolo.\n \n2. Heavy rain and flooding threats from Nolo are diminishing across \nthe Hawaiian Islands as the storm continues to move to the \nwest-southwest away from the Islands.\n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big \nIsland's coastline through today.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 16.2N 158.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 16.3N 159.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 17.0N 161.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 18.4N 162.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.3N 163.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  30/0000Z 21.8N 163.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 22.4N 164.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 23.0N 168.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}